789
FXAK69 PAFG 160932
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1232 AM AKST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE MAINLAND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE LOCATION OF THAT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE YK DELTA TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE N INTERIOR AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR NORTH OF THE AK RANGE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH
BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVELS AND ANALYSIS...
A 508 DAM ARCTIC LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE CHUKCHI
COASTLINE AND W BROOKS RANGE. THERE IS A BUILDING 544 DAM RIDGE
OVER THE YUKON, WITH THAT RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SE INTERIOR.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF AK WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE N GULF COAST.
FINALLY, THERE IS A LARGE AND SPRAWLING 504 DAM LOW OVER THE N
PACIFIC STRETCHING ACROSS THE W ALEUTIANS TO THE E ALEUTIANS.
FORECAST AND MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE ALL DEPICTING A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE ARCTIC
TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE NW ARCTIC, TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. REMNANT TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NW ARCTIC AND MERGE WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWEST. THAT MERGER WILL SETUP AN ARCTIC FRONT
ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS THE MAINLAND. ALONG THAT FRONT THERE WILL
BE SNOW, WITH BLOWING SNOW OVER THE YK DELTA COAST TO SEWARD
PENINSULA. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS VERY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG ANY
OF THE MODELS FROM DETERMINISTIC TO ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, ON WHERE
EXACTLY THAT FRONT SETS UP, WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST
EAST AND THE GFS/NAM BEING THE FURTHEST WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT
OVER THE YK DELTA AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND INTO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA, WITH SNOW MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT ALL
THE WAY TO THE BROOKS RANGE.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
EAST WINDS ARE WINDING DOWN OVER THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA WITH
WEAKENING SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE AK RANGE. SOME FLURRIES ARE
OCCURING OVER THE LOWER TANANA VALLEY AND UP TOWARD THE N
INTERIOR, BUT IT WILL GENERALLY OTHERWISE BE DRY FOR THE S
INTERIOR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS FROM TANANA TO THE UPPER
KOYUKUK VALLEY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, FAVORING THE DALTON HWY CORRIDOR TO THE S
BROOKS RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK FAIRLY MEAGRE, THOUGH, WITH A
SKIFF TO TWO INCHES OR SO. WINDS WILL ONLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO 15 MPH OR SO, SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS. THE S INTERIOR IS DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE AK RANGE LATE TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
A SCATTERING OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUES ACROSS COASTAL
REGIONS, MAINLY UNDERNEATH THE ARCTIC LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER THE NW ARCTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING IMPACTS TO
THE REGION MOVES IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS DOWN THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE YK
DELTA, AS WELL AS ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON AND SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE DELTA AND
INTO THE N BERING SEA/SEWARD PENINSULA. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUKON VALLEY TO THE BROOKS RANGE. GENERALLY NOT LOOKING
AT HEAVY SNOW, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW DOWN OVER THE YK DELTA, SO THE BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE NW ARCTIC AND INTO THE BEAUFORT THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 15
MPH OVER THE E ARCTIC, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TOWARD POINT LAY TO
POINT HOPE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES WITH THE TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE ARCTIC COAST, WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE S MAINLAND, ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
NOT GOING TO BE DYNAMIC WITH STRONG GRADIENTS OR STORMS, BUT THERE
WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW AS WEAKENING FRONTS MOVE INTO
THE INTERIOR, AND INTERACT WITH THE ARCTIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
AHSENMACHER
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