254
FXAK69 PAFG 171415
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
515 AM AKST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTH SLOPE. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WILL BRING LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES FROM BETTLES THROUGH THE BROOKS
RANGE TO THE ARCTIC COAST. SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES DUE TO NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. A SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD
OUT OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BRING SNOW, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, TO THE YK
DELTA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STRENGTHENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE BERING
STRAIT AND WESTERN COAST. WE HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST, DIOMEDE, AND YK DELTA COAST. A
BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS THE NULATO HILLS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE CLOSER
TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW ARRIVES ON MONDAY, WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YK DELTA.
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHUKCHI
AND BERING SEAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. BLIZZARD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND REGION ESPECIALLY NEAR
GAMBELL.
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM THE YUKON DELTA COAST TO THE BERING
STRAIT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AT TIMES.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE MID WEEK WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS OVER NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ARCTIC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES
EAST TO WEST ROUGHLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE YK DELTA, AND
THIS FEATURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH, MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE
ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW THEN
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH COLD WEATHER
PERSISTING NORTH OF IT. PERIODS OF SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY IN THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AIDS THE LARGER SCALE FORCING. ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL FIRST ARRIVES ACROSS THE YK DELTA ON
MONDAY, HOWEVER, WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARDS IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS AND
AMOUNTS FROM 4 TO AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NULATO HILLS REGIONS OF THE
YK DELTA THAT IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. SNOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD KOTZEBUE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS
INTENSIFIES. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF ACTIVE SNOWFALL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO THE
BERING STRAIT COAST AND A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND ISSUED WITH SOLID PROBABILITY OF VERIFYING, WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE POLAR JET
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A PRIMARY STORM TRACK
SENDING LOWS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS DOWNSLOPING AND
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD. SOME MOISTURE MAY STILL MAKE IT
NORTHWARD AT TIMES, SINCE WEAK FRONTS MAY SNEAK NORTH WITH EACH
LANDFALLING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY
REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE LOWS...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER THURSDAY. WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND COAST. GALES LIKELY TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS DIMINISHING OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ827.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ830.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-804-805-850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-816-851-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
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