367
FXAK69 PAFG 172232
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 PM AKST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BRING
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE YK DELTA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN COAST. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST,
DIOMEDE, AND YK DELTA COAST. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS THE NULATO HILLS AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR 6 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW WILL REACH POINT HOPE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY EAST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WILL PICK UP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, WITH 4 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YK DELTA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NULATO
HILLS. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT ALONG THE NULATO HILLS.
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHUKCHI
AND BERING SEAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. BLIZZARD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND REGION ESPECIALLY NEAR
GAMBELL.
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW.
- SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WITH A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL REACH POINT HOPE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS STILL IN EFFECT.
FORECAST DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS...
A STACKED 509 DAM UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A PRIMARY LOW OVER
THE ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW
THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. PERIODS OF
SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BROOKS RANGE WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AIDS THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING. WE TWEEKED THE SNOW AMOUNTS UP ALONG THE NULATO HILLS
WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD KOTZEBUE
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS
INTENSIFIES. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. EAST WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 MPH DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR SUMMITS ON WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE POLAR JET
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS
OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE WEAK WAVES MOVE UP ALONG THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND COAST.
GALES LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS
DIMINISHING OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE IF NOT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ827.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ830.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-805-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-851-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
JK
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