432
FXAK69 PAFG 211506
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
606 AM AKST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE CHUKCHI
SEA DOWN TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
LOCALIZED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
POINT HOPE TO POINT LAY AND NEAR DEADHORSE. WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- GUSTY EAST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY, DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE FROM POINT HOPE THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT TOWARDS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
- BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY POINT
HOPE TO POINT LAY.
- WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXTENDING INTO THE BROOKS RANGE.
- WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE ON SATURDAY, BUT LIKELY
PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- COLD WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED, PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GROUND BLIZZARDS.
FORECAST DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
NORTH-SOUTH MSLP GRADIENT HAS SET UP ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ALASKA PROMOTING A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
STRONG AND GUSTIER WINDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
HIGHWAY SUMMITS, AND ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SHORES. STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE TO POINT HOPE MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC
GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE BERING SEA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH
ALLOWS THE MSLP GRADIENT TO RELAX AND THE WINDS TO THEREFORE
DIMINISH. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE, THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
WITH BROAD RIDGING OVER ALASKA AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, LIGHT MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE HAS
LEAD TO WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HINT AT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE NORTHWARD LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A STRONGER LOW POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY WITH THESE FEATURES SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
REGARDING SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. LIGHT LOW TO MID- LEVEL
FLOW WITHIN THE RIDGE MAY REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF RAIN SHADOWING SO
SNOW MAY NOT BE CONFINED TO JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE LOWS TRACK AND HOW THEY
EVOLVE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-810-814-850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817-851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ861.
ECKHOFF
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