793
FXAK69 PAFG 221426
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
526 AM AKST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
BLOWING SNOW AND GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
THROUGH MONDAY. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY, REACHING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- STRONG WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT TODAY, PERSISTING
FROM POINT HOPE NORTHWARD.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM POINT HOPE TO POINT LAY.
- SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST TODAY, SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- SNOW SPREADS EASTWARD ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY.
- STRONG WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, WITH BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY LIKELY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A POTENT
BARRIER JET HAS DEVELOPED RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS LONG
THE NORTH SLOPE. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH GROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR, WHICH IS FROM POINT HOPE TO POINT
LAY. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA, WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. STRONG WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ANTICIPATED. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES NORTHWESTWARD
ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX A BIT.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND, A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR
KOTZEBUE AND IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. GUIDANCE TAKES THIS
FEATURE SLOWLY EASTWARD, ROUGHLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BROOKS
RANGE. SNOWFALL FOLLOWS SUITE AND SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF STATE IT WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A SECONDARY WAVE LIFTING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MAINLY ALONG THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE TANANA VALLEY. THE RAIN SHADOW
EFFECT MAY BE MINIMIZED DUE TO WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT BUT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE APPEAR MOST PROBABLE AS OF RIGHT NOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE IDEA OF WEAK
RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY. ANY ACTIVE
WEATHER MAY BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS LIFT NORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR THE MOST
PART, DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTH SLOPE
WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES HANG ON THIS WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, PERIODIC
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND BERING SEA MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813>815-858>861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
ECKHOFF
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