149
FXAK69 PAFG 272311
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL NORTH OF FAIRBANKS ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH
OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SNOW SHIFT TO THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY AND ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT BRING A MIXED OF SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND
FREEZING RAIN TO THE WEST COAST BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. TWO MORE SIMILAR FRONTS WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SNOW TO
THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL NORTH OF FAIRBANKS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT.
- BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
PEAK GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
- LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- DRY WITH MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY.
- A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING AND SNOW WHICH MAY MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
- IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND
2 INCHES OR LESS WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT GLAZE.
- ANOTHER SIMILAR, THOUGH WEAKER FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- QUIET WEATHER WITH MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER.
- A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW POSSIBLE, FIRST BEING ON SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW AND SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE, MOSTLY FROM
WAINWRIGHT SOUTHWEST.
- A STRONGER FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY FROM UTQIAGVIK SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
ALASKA WITH AN EMBEDDED DEEPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE. THIS DEEPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF TO BECOME AN UPPER LOW
LATE THIS EVENING AND DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FROM
FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND
UPPER TANANA VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN THUS FAR, SO HAVE BACKED
OFF ON POPS FOR THIS PERIOD TO LIMIT LIKELY POPS MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION AND TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW WILL
BE LESS LIKELY TO SUBLIMATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. OVER THE
WEST COAST, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A FRONT FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA BRINGS MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION FALLING THERE AS WELL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD AS IT WEAKENS. ANOTHER SIMILAR FRONT WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY AND PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WHILE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE AREA, THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE DECREASING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN WITH A FRONT BRINGING MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR ON
MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND THAT INTERIOR
VALLEYS WILL SEE MAINLY JUST LIGHT SNOW. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT ALSO PUSHES INTO
THE INTERIOR TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS
TO EXPECT A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY.
THERE IS NO SIGN OF A MAJOR WARMUP IN THE NEXT TEN DAYS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...NONE.
CHRIEST
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