439
FXAK69 PAFG 282321
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 PM AKDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS WITH QUIET
WEATHER ELSEWHERE PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE A
HIGHLY UNUSUAL PATTERN SETS UP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A NUMBER OF
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST, SNOW AND WIND TO
THE INTERIOR, AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE ARCTIC COAST.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
OF FAIRBANKS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOWFALL AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EVEN INTO VALLEY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING FAIRBANKS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING AND SNOW WHICH WILL MIX
WITH FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
- IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE AROUND
2 INCHES OR LESS WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT GLAZE, EXCEPT
NEAR NOME WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
- ANOTHER SIMILAR, THOUGH WEAKER FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR NOME AND LIGHT SNOW NORTH TO
POINT HOPE.
- A THIRD SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINING EVEN
MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.
- WINDS REMAIN 15 MPH OF LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXPECT SATURDAY
NIGHT AT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER.
- A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW POSSIBLE, FIRST BEING ON SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW MOSTLY FROM POINT LAY SOUTHWEST.
- A STRONGER FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY FROM UTQIAGVIK SOUTHWEST WHERE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL SPREADS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2".
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AFTER YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS
PRESENTED REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK, TODAY'S RUNS
PRESENTED A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH DIFFERENT POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
THUS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY. BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND, A VERY
UNUSUAL PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BRINGING A
VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A COUPLE OF VERTICALLY STACKED HIGHS, ONE
NEAR 75 DEGREES N TO THE NORTH OF KAKTOVIK AND ONE NEAR AMCHITKA
IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE, THESE HIGHS ARE BOTH
AROUND 1042 MB, AND A 999 MB LOW IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. ON SATURDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BRING PRECIPITATION FROM EMMONAK
NORTH TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL START
AS SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
RAIN FROM THE BERING STRAIT SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY,
BUT A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AGAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR AS SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, THIS WILL BRING FALLING SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
AND WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM, EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE ALCAN BORDER THOUGH
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE HEAVY. BY THIS TIME, THE HIGH IN THE
ARCTIC WILL BE REPLACED WITH A 981 MB LOW AS IT MOVES THE FRONTS
EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WITH A STRONG LOW IN THE ARCTIC AND
VERY STRONG HIGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA, INCLUDING THROUGH
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION ALLOWING FOR
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. A 925 MB JET APPROACHING 45 KNOTS OVER THE
TANANA VALLEY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE FALLING SNOW MEANS THAT THERE
IS EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FROM NENANA TO FAIRBANKS TO EIELSON AFB. THE GFS SHOWS
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW SNOWFALL ALONG WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 35 MPH. UNCERTAINTIES STILL ABOUND, BUT THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR A SNOW + WIND EVENT ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST AS WELL. DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE
ACTIVE AND UNSEASONABLE FOR LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801>803.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-851-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
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