302
FXAK69 PAFG 290944
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
144 AM AKDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW WITH A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AROUND NORTON SOUND AND
THE YK DELTA. THIS FRONT QUICKLY WEAKENS AND ANOTHER STRONGER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC, AND ARCTIC COAST, TONIGHT
AND SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SKIRT THE
WEST COAST AND WILL BRING A LOT MORE WARM AIR WITH IT, WITH A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST. THE FRONT SHIFTS INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING SNOWFALL
TO THE INTERIOR.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
LIGHT SNOW WITH A DEPARTING ARCTIC LOW WILL BRING MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE E INTERIOR TODAY THEN EXIT EAST. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTERIOR WIDE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FAST
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY EVENING AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE
IMPACTING THE INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING, SO COMMUTERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTERY CONDITIONS. THE FRONT SHIFTS OUT OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME QUITE GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOWFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGHWAY
SUMMITS. TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S POST-FRONT WILL
MEAN WET AND SLUSHY ROADS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES INTERIOR WIDE WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE AK RANGE AND CHENA BASIN UPPER
ELEVATIONS.
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FAST MOVING FRONT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.
- EXPECTING 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR, HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
THE AK RANGE AND UPPER CHENA BASIN.
- MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND
WILL EXIT BY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH 1 TO MAYBE
2 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION (FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING RAIN) POSSIBLE FROM NOME TO THE YK DELTA, WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.01 INCHES EXPECTED. RIGHT ON THE
HEALS OF THAT FRONT IS YET ANOTHER WARM FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE
BERING COAST SUNDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TURNING TO RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM KOTZEBUE SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT WILL BRING 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM KOTZEBUE NORTH, BEFORE CHANGING TO MIXED
PRECIP. ONCE AGAIN, ONLY A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED. A THIRD
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, WITH MIXED PRECIP
AND SNOWFALL EXPECTED, WITH THE MIXED PRECIP LINE MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE LOWER YUKON AND YK DELTA.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR NOME, WITH EITHER LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
- LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO
THE NULATO HILLS THIS MORNING AND EXITS THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE MIXED PRECIP AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST, WITH LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
FROM THE YK DELTA TO KOTZEBUE SOUND.
- THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AND MIXED PRECIP. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS LOOKS TO BE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE FIRST TWO.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
ACTIVE WEATHER MOVES IN STARTING TODAY, WITH A WEAK FRONT BRINGING
SNOWFALL TO THE CHUKCHI COAST MAINLY FROM POINT LAY SOUTH. THE
BIGGER STORY IS A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM
WRANGEL ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING AND TRACK INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE ARCTIC, THUS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE ARCTIC COAST AND PARTS OF THE
ARCTIC PLAIN.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH TODAY, THEN INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER.
- A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW POSSIBLE, FIRST BEING ON TODAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW MOSTLY FROM POINT LAY SOUTHWEST.
- A STRONGER FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND GALE FORCE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BLOWING
SNOW IS LIKELY AS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOWFALL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE WARMTH AND LACK OF CURRENT TRANSPORTABLE
SNOW, UNLIKELY. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE SECOND
FRONT.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTH
SLOPE AND ARCTIC COAST REGION FOR THE SECOND LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THERE IS A 526 DAM ARCTIC LOW OVER THE E INTERIOR SLOWLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. A WEAK WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BERING STRAIT. A DEEPER AND STRONGER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WITH TIME THE WEST COAST FRONTS WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE W INTERIOR. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT AND LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE ARCTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS SAME FRONT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE INTERIOR.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ON TUESDAY, THE BARRAGE OF FRONTS AND LOWS WILL BE ONGOING AS A
BROAD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE MAINLAND. A STRONG
LOW WILL BE EXITING THE ARCTIC REGIONS WITH CONTINUED MINOR
BLOWING SNOW AND WEST WINDS. A FRONT WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE SW
INTERIOR AND INTO THE AK RANGE WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR TUE THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE MAINLAND, BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S INTERIOR. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE YK DELTA TO THE YUKON VALLEY AND POSSIBLY NEAR
THE AK RANGE WITH THAT SYSTEM.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801>803-806.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805-808.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-816-817-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-851-861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
AHSENMACHER
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