452
FXAK69 PAFG 292242
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 PM AKDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE AND UNUSUAL PERIOD OF WEATHER HAS BEGUN
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A FRONT BRINGING SNOW AND WIND INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST COAST FROM NORTON SOUND NORTH TODAY. A SERIES OF
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SOME
FREEZING RAIN TO THE WEST COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SNOW,
WIND, AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE ARCTIC COAST. SNOW WILL PUSH INTO
THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, POSSIBLY MAKING FOR A
CHALLENGING MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THERE
WILL BE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE INTERIOR
LIKELY SEEING ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FAST MOVING FRONT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.
- EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT UP TO 5 INCHES
NEAR DENALI PARK AND FROM EIELSON AFB EAST INTO THE UPPER CHENA
AND SALCHA BASINS.
- MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL.
- ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 4 TO 10
INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH THROUGH VALLEYS AND 35 MPH
OVER HIGHWAYS SUMMITS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR NOME, WITH EITHER LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS MORE MIXED PRECIP AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST, WITH LIGHT MIXED PRECIP
FROM THE YK DELTA TO KOTZEBUE SOUND ON SUNDAY.
- THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AND MIXED PRECIP. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE FIRST TWO.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH TODAY, THEN INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER.
- A STRONGER FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND GALE FORCE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BLOWING
SNOW IS LIKELY AS THERE WILL BE A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOWFALL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE WARMTH AND LACK OF CURRENT TRANSPORTABLE
SNOW, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS UNLIKELY.
EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE SECOND FRONT.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTH
SLOPE AND ARCTIC COAST REGION FOR THE SECOND LOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- WEATHER TURNS QUIETER ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
STARTING TUESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
NORTHEAST OF FORT YUKON IS EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST AS A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. A WARM FRONT WEAKENS OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND THE
NULATO HILLS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE AREA
AND NORTH TO KOTZEBUE AND POINT HOPE WITH VISIBILITY AT POINT HOPE
DROPPING TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INLAND, BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY THAT WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTH TO KOTZEBUE. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING ICE WILL BE AT NOME WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST, THIS FRONT WILL
BRING SNOW AND LOCALIZED BRIEF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM NUIQSUT
WEST ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT AS
THE STRONG 975 MB SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE BEAUFORT
SEA. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SECOND FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
INTERIOR AS SNOW, WITH SNOWFALL REACHING FAIRBANKS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCING AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AT THE WEST COAST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE STRENGTH OF A
TRAILING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND HOW WELL IT BREAKS DOWN THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE BERING SEA WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
SNOW REACHES INTO THE INTERIOR, WITH MODEL RUN TOTALS SHOWING
BETWEEN 4 AND 10 INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL
BRING HEAVIER SNOW TO THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 10 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. MOST
MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR DAILY BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801>803-806.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805-808.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-850-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-854-860-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ859.
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