167
FXAK69 PAFG 012316
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
316 PM AKDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THROUGH THE
INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH UP TO
7 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE HILLS OF THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH.
-STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PICK
UP AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 30MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS WITH UP TO 40MPH POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY SUMMITS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.
-TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING
NEAR 40 WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S THIS WEEKEND.
-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN SNOW MIX AND
SOME AREAS OF JUST RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
LIMITING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING LIGHT WINTRY MIX, SNOW, MIST, AND FOG ACROSS THE YK DELTA,
NORTON SOUND COAST, AND SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA.
-ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE FOR THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NULATO HILLS BEFORE
SNOW TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY.
-SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING THAT COULD PUSH WATER OVER ICE, BUT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
IS LIMITED BY WARM TEMPERATURES.
-NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
-WEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
WITH A PASSING FRONT. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW
FROM POINT THOMPSON EAST AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, BUT LACK OF FALLING SNOW WILL LIMIT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 984MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC, A 1030MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS, AND A 1040MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS IS
CREATING A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS IS BRINGING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE STATE AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES
EAST INTO CANADA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOWFALL THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES EAST INTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA OVERNIGHT PROVIDING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW TO THE WEST COAST AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE, BUT THE
INTERIOR WILL STAY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A 965 TO 976MB LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH MODELS
DISAGREEING ON ITS STRENGTH. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THIS LOW AS
976 WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS RESOLVING THE FEATURE AS
STRONGER AT 965MB. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS FEATURE'S
LOCATION AND A FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO THE WEST COAST
AND SNOWFALL WITH CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE INTERIOR WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG YUKON DELTA AND THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DRAPES A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE
YK DELTA THROUGH AMBLER AND TO THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE. A WEAK LOW MOVES
EAST FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE ARCTIC COAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AND THE
YUKON UPLANDS, BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING, AREA, AND QUANTITY OF
SNOWFALL. MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A LOW MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS ALL HAVE DIFFERENT
STRENGTHS AND TIMINGS FOR THIS LOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4... NEAR GALE-FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTON SOUND MAY PUSH WATER THROUGH
CRACKS IN ICE. FLOODED SHOREFAST ICE IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING IMPACTS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834-838-842.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ839>841-843>845.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-808-809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-807-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803>805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-859>861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
STOKES
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