089
FXAK69 PAFG 022205
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
205 PM AKDT WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND WARMER, DRIER, CONDITIONS
TO AREAS NORTH OF IT INCLUDING FAIRBANKS. A FRONT BRINGS
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE WEST COAST FROM THE YK DELTA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE BY NOON FRIDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANGES OVER THE LIGHT
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
-GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE HILLS NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS.
-TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING
NEAR 50 FROM THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY
AND THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
-TEMPERATURES DECREASE AT NIGHT TO BELOW FREEZING ALMOST
EVERYWHERE CREATING A FREEZE-THAW CYCLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO THROUGH THE NORTON SOUND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COAST OF THE NORTON SOUND.
-A FRONT APPROACHING THE YK DELTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE WEST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON WITH
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES.
-WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
YUKON DELTA COAST WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. WITH FALLING SNOW
THERE WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST WITH
VISIBILITY FALLING TO HALF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-LIGHT SNOW MOVES OVER THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FALLING EAST AND SOUTH OF UTQIAGVIK.
-EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS BEING FROM POINT THOMPSON EAST WITH GUSTS UP TO
35MPH POSSIBLE. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FRIDAY EVENING.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 1006MB LOW OVER THE KOTZEBUE SOUND IS BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR AND IS BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
MAIN BODY OF PRECIPITATION CREATING BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WHERE
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR INCLUDING FAIRBANKS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE AS IT FILLS IN THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTH SLOPE SOUTH AND EAST OF UTQIAGVIK WITH TOTALS GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH.
ALOFT, A 491 DAM LOW SITS IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WITH A 560 RIDGE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA SUPPORTS SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
LOW FILLS IN AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH BECOMING A LESS DOMINANT
FEATURE THURSDAY WITH THE GULF RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO CANADA AND
INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE LOW IN THE
BERING SEA ROTATING AROUND THE ARCTIC LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT
MERGES WITH A PACIFIC LOW THAT MOVES NORTH FROM 40N LATITUDE INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY CREATING BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ALASKA RANGE AS IT PUSHES AGAINST THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS
FLOW WILL CREATE A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF MERGING WITH THE
BERING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP FUEL A FRONT OF PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM THE YK DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO THE
YK DELTA AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH UNTIL IT REACHES THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WHICH WILL SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS
TO THE YK DELTA.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
MONDAY SEES A SHORTWAVE LOW MOVE EAST FROM SIBERIA ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THESE FEATURES, BUT AGREE ON IT MOVING INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE, PUSH IT EAST, AND
LEAD TO RIDGE BREAKDOWN ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. THIS WILL
BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH SLOPE AND MIGHT, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE, BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834-838-842.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803>805-852-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
STOKES
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