427
FXAK69 PAFG 030012
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 PM AKDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EAST
WINDS, AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ON THE NORTH SLOPE. ADDITONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR
MOST. THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT REMAINS STALLED DOWNRIVER FROM
EAGLE, LIKELY NEAR THE TATONDUK RIVER
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE ENTITIES ACCOMPANIED BY THIS, SO
WHEREVER THE HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW BANDS SET UP WILL DETERMINE WHO
GETS THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
- OVERALL, EXPECT AROUND 0.10-0.30" OF RAIN IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE IN THOSE
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS.
- ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500FT IN THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW
WITH 2-5 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT THE ONSET ON
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.
- A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION END TIME, MAY BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND DOWNPOURS PERSIST.
- SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
- TEMPS ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL TOMORROW AND SATURDAY BUT WARM UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF COOL DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITION LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN AND ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR.
- RAIN REACHES TANANA/MCGRATH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES
PROGRESSING NORTH/WEST TO GALENA AND THE NULATO HILLS
OVERNIGHT.
- RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 1500FT
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
- EXPECT 0.10-0.30" OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WITH 1-3" OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG THE
COAST, A TRACE TO 1 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IN ATIGUN/ANAKTUVUK PASSES POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON.
- GREATER RISKS FOR SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN ATIGUN PASS.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY IN THE BROOKS RANGE WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THE ARCTIC COAST WITH
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
SHORTWAVE BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR BY 3 TO 6
HOURS, SO WE ADJUSTED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. WE ALSO EXPANDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES WEST TO NEAR FAIRBANKS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKES OF THE SUMMER
OCCURRING IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS (AS WELL AS
ELEVATION SNOW) WITH 0.10 TO 0.30" OF RAIN IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TERRAIN ABOVE 1500FT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. BELOW 1500FT, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE TO
SEE OVER 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT A 75+% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.10
INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE CONVECTIVE,
MEANING THERE WILL BE DOWNPOURS AND HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. ALONG WITH THIS, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DRY CREEK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS ON SATURDAY. NONETHELESS, THIS
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS WELL AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF QPF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SUNNY
SKIES AND RH DROPPING TO 25 TO 30% ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER AT EAGLE BROKE UP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE BREAKUP FRONT HAS SINCE STALLED DOWNSTREAM OF EAGLE,
LIKELY NEAR THE TATONDUK RIVER. WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE BREAKUP
FRONT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER, AN ICE JAM EAST OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER IS IN PLACE 6 MILES UPRIVER FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
FORTYMILE AND BACKING UP WATER. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS, THE
BREAKUP FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH CIRCLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. WITH INTACT ICE REMAINING IN PLACE AT CIRCLE AND THE
STALLED BREAKUP FRONT, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING WHEN THE BREAKUP FRONT FINALLY REACHES AND
PASSES CIRCLE.
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE UPPER CHENA AND SALCHA BASINS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHARP RISES ON BOTH THOSE RIVERS.
RISING WATER WILL ALSO BRING ICE THAT IS STRANDED ON THE BANKS OF
THE RIVER DOWNSTREAM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CHENA REACHES
NEAR ACTION STAGE NEAR THE MOOSE CREEK DAM BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE ARCTIC BUT DOES BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN EASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW ANCHORS ITSELF IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
NEAR OR SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH IN THE ARCTIC MAY BRING A COUPLE OF BREEZY AND COOL
DAYS IN THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WARM UP BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT RIDGING WILL WIN OUT LATE
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE "SUMMER-LIKE" PATTERN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ833.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-812-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-856-859.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814-815-860-861.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
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