688
FXAK69 PAFG 032053
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1253 PM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DREARY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN IN THE TANANA
VALLEY ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET. IN THE YUKON AND KOYUKUK VALLEYS, SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
RISE ABOVE FREEZING. OTHERWISE, IT'S A SIMILAR STORY IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE
NORTH SLOPE WILL BE BREEZY WITH FOG AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW BECOMES LESS OF A CONCERN TOMORROW AND
MONDAY AS THERE WON'T BE AS MUCH LOOSE SNOW TO BLOW AROUND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOGGY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A TRACE TO 0.10" OF RAIN
TODAY, SNOWY ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH ANOTHER COATING TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ALASKA
RANGE TO THE YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS.
- A MUCH NICER DAY IS COMING TOMORROW WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CHICKEN TO
CIRCLE, INCLUDING THE ALCAN.
- COOLER AND WINDY ON MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN FAIRBANKS AND UP TO 45 MPH
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
- CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. NEAR 50/LOW 50S IN THE TANANA
VALLEY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A CLOUDY, DREARY DAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
- CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STICK AROUND ON THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BUT THE INTERIOR DRIES OUT WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM GALENA EAST AND EXPANDS
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- BREEZY EAST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW/FOG TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS LESSEN EACH DAY AS LOOSE SNOW
BECOMES LESS READILY AVAILABLE. VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH A COMBO OF BLOWING SNOW/FOG.
- LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE BROOKS RANGE WITH AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN ATIGUN/ANAKTUVUK PASS.
- CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OUR PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH A 998MB LOW IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND MOVING INLAND TODAY. A HIGH IN THE ARCTIC REMAINS
DOMINANT WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW IN THE INTERIOR WHICH
IS THE REASON FOR OUR PRECIPITATION TODAY. OTHERWISE, TOMORROW, AS
THE LOW CURRENTLY IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES INLAND, ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL TAKE ITS PLACE AND SIT IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ARCTIC HIGH DURING THIS TIME
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH, SUPPORTING COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. A FEW
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MIXED IN THERE AS SHORTWAVES FROM THE LOW IN
THE GULF MOVE NORTH AND WEST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO OUR
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THESE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER
WE HAD OUR FIRST THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY SOUTH OF
EAGLE AND NORTH OF TOK. OTHER THAN THAT, RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST
TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO
THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW IS A MUCH DRIER DAY
WITH MIN RHS AROUND 20 TO 30% FROM NENANA SOUTH AND EAST TO THE
ALCAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALSO WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING OR IN THE LOW 60S. SOUTH WINDS IN ISABEL PASS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE MIN RHS GET TO THEIR LOWEST POINT, BUT WE WILL BE
NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN ISABEL PASS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM CHICKEN TO EAGLE AND NORTHWEST TO CIRCLE TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL START OFF DRY AND BE WINDY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN FAIRBANKS AND
UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. AS A WHOLE, IT
WILL BE COOLER WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON, SO FIRE WEATHER SHOULDN'T BE OF GRAVE CONCERN.
TUESDAY CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A STORM IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL
WITH WINDS WEAKENING.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER AT EAGLE BROKE UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BREAKUP FRONT HAS SINCE STALLED DOWNSTREAM OF EAGLE, LIKELY NEAR
THE TATONDUK RIVER. WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE BREAKUP FRONT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. AN ADDITIONAL ICE JAM EAST OF THE CANADIAN BORDER,
6 MILES UPRIVER FROM THE MOUTH OF THE FORTYMILE, IS BACKING UP
WATER. WITH THE CURRENT COOL TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
SNOWMELT IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE YUKON, THEREFORE THESE TWO JAM
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY STABLE AND THE BREAKUP FRONT IS UNLIKELY
TO REACH CIRCLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER WHEN THINGS
START MOVING AGAIN, THE INTACT ICE REMAINING AT CIRCLE CREATES A
CHANCE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WHEN THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVES
PAST CIRCLE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS COOL IN THE INTERIOR WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEST
COAST. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN ALASKA BESIDES THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL STAY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. WE'LL BE MONITORING A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST IN THE INTERIOR WHICH MAY SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY GO ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND IN THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE AS RIDGING TRIES TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH
INTO ALASKA FROM CANADA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ833.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813>815-859.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
BIANCO
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