276
FXAK69 PAFG 040904
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
104 AM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH EAST WINDS EXPECTED
INCREASE ACROSS THE MAINLAND SUN AND MON, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
ARCTIC COAST. A FRONT FROM THE GULF SHIFTS INLAND MON WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE INTERIOR.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
QUITE A BIT OF SUN TODAY WITH SOME CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAKENING FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AK RANGE. THIS WILL
INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 MPH. MONDAY
IS WINDIER WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, WITH 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A FRONT MOVES INLAND AND WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS.
- DRIER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN FAIRBANKS
AND UP TO 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 35
MPH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
-CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THEN RAPID CLEARING WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH, LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ON
MONDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
EAST WINDS ARE BRINGING SOME STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW/FOG TO THE
ARCTIC THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST, BUT IT IS
TRYING TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD UTQIAGVIK. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THEN TAPER TONIGHT. A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH OF NEAR 1040 MB WILL INTERACT WITH A
FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF, PUTTING ON THE SQUEEZE AND
RAMPING UP EAST WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH
MORE BLOWING SNOW LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST INTO SUSTAINED GALE FORCE RANGE (GUSTING
TO 50 MPH).
- EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUE OVER THE E ARCTIC. BLOWING
SNOW IS LIKELY, MAINLY FROM PRUDHOE BAY TO POINT LAY.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
FOR PARTS OF THE E ARCTIC FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THERE IS A STRONG 520 DAM UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE E ALEUTIANS
WITH A STRONG 557 DAM HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC. THERE IS A REMNANT
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MAINLAND MAINLY FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE
BROOKS RANGE, WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS ALONG THAT FRONT. A 1040 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE ARCTIC WITH A 980 MB LOW NEAR THE E ALEUTIAN
CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
DRYING TODAY OVER THE S INTERIOR AS EAST WINDS RAMP UP OVER THE
TANANA VALLEY AND S WINDS GUST TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AK RANGE.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WHITE MTNS/YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS NORTHEAST OF
EAGLE. EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER
THOSE AREAS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 25 TO 35
MPH AND MORE MIN RH VALUES INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FRONT MOVES
INLAND AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH RISING MIN RH AND SLACKENING WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER AT EAGLE BROKE UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BREAKUP FRONT HAS SINCE STALLED DOWNSTREAM OF EAGLE, LIKELY NEAR
THE TATONDUK RIVER. WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE BREAKUP FRONT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. AN ADDITIONAL ICE JAM EAST OF THE CANADIAN BORDER,
6 MILES UPRIVER FROM THE MOUTH OF THE FORTYMILE, IS BACKING UP
WATER. WITH THE CURRENT COOL TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
SNOWMELT IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE YUKON, THEREFORE THESE TWO JAM
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY STABLE AND THE BREAKUP FRONT IS UNLIKELY
TO REACH CIRCLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER WHEN THINGS
START MOVING AGAIN, THE INTACT ICE REMAINING AT CIRCLE CREATES A
CHANCE FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WHEN THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVES
PAST CIRCLE.
MCGRATH ICE HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE RUNNING AGAIN SAT WITH RISING
WATER LEVELS, BUT STILL BELOW BANK. NO FLOOD CONCERNS FOR MCGRATH
AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE EXTENDED LOOKS RATHER MUNDANE AS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE
MAINLAND. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONAL. IT SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE
WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE STRONGER FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN/MIXED
RAIN SNOW TO THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ833.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813>815-859.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
AHSENMACHER
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