161
FXAK69 PAFG 042133
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH CONTINUED
BLOWING SNOW AND FOG. VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE IN THE INTERIOR IT WILL BE
WINDY AND COOLER WITH SOME AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WEST COAST
REMAINS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS/YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS.
- COOLER AND WINDY TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH IN FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH AND 45 MPH IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
- WIND ADVISORIES AND SPS'S ISSUED.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
TOMORROW. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE
AK RANGE TO YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, DRYING OUT TOMORROW WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 35 MPH TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY THEN WEAKENING SLOWLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN THEY GET TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- EAST WINDS BRINGING STRATUS, LIGHT SNOW, FOG AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED IF BLOWING SNOW
PERSISTS.
- BROOKS RANGE REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 517 DAM UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND. IT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND BE JUST SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG, PERSISTENT 556
DAM UPPER HIGH IN THE ARCTIC GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS AS
IT MEETS THE ARCTIC COAST AS A 546 DAM HIGH ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE LOW IN THE GULF IS ABOUT 983 MB JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK AND THE HIGH IN THE ARCTIC IS AT 1037 MB AROUND 80N NORTH
OF UTQIAGVIK.
FIRE WEATHER
DRYING CONTINUES TODAY OVER THE S INTERIOR AS EAST WINDS RAMP UP
OVER THE TANANA VALLEY AND S WINDS GUST TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE AK
RANGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WHITE MTNS/YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS NORTHWEST OF
EAGLE. EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OVER
THOSE AREAS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE MONDAY TO 25 TO 35
MPH AND MORE MIN RH VALUES INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FRONT MOVES
INLAND AND WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY PM
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH RISING MIN RH AND SLACKENING WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER AT EAGLE BROKE UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BREAKUP FRONT THAT WAS STALLED DOWNSTREAM OF EAGLE NEAR THE
TATONDUK RIVER, HAS STARTED MOVING AGAIN. WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE
BREAKUP FRONT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THE ICE JAM EAST OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER, 6 MILES UPRIVER FROM THE MOUTH OF THE FORTYMILE,
IS STILL IN PLACE AND RIVER LEVELS ARE STARTING TO RISE IN DAWSON.
WITH THE BREAKUP FRONT AGAIN ON THE MOVE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WHEN IT REACHES CIRCLE, WHICH COULD BE
AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT MAY BE SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ICE JAMMING.
VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST RIVER UPDATES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
PRETTY MUNDANE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE
AREA DRIES OUT LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT WE'LL BE MONITORING A LOW IN
THE BERING WHICH MAY BRING A STRONGER FRONT TO THE WEST COAST WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ832-834-846.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ833.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-804-805-816-852-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-803-817-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-813-857>859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-860-861.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
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