816
FXAK69 PAFG 050935
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
135 AM AKDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE AK RANGE. THEY WILL WANE THIS EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS (MIXED SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 2000 FEET) AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WED. IT SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER THAN IT WAS SUN WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. OVER THE
ARCTIC, GALES WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION
TERRAIN AND 35 MPH OVER LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE S INTERIOR AND MOVE NORTHWARD, BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 1800 FEET). AS USUAL MOST
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE VALLEYS WILL SEE A
SMALL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN PLACE, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AK
RANGE AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK SOUTH MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
AK RANGE AND OVER THE YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS TUE AND WED.
- NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH
AND 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE AK RANGE AND WHITE MTNS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE
AK RANGE TO YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT BEING
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUING THROUGH
TODAY. SHOWER CHANCES MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH FOR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE COAST IS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- EAST WINDS BRINGING STRATUS, LIGHT SNOW, FOG AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 35 G 50 MPH FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST. HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF
BLOWABLE SNOW IS LOW AND FOR NOW, WE WILL MAINTAIN AN SPS.
- BROOKS RANGE REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 518 DAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE AKPEN WITH A STRONG
STORM FORCE FRONT MOVING INTO THE N GULF COAST. A BLOCKING HIGH
OVER THE ARCTIC PERSISTS, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 OVER
THE ARCTIC, AND A 985 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. NORTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR EVEN AFTER SUNDOWN
DUE TO A STRONG GRADIENT, WHICH PEAKS LATER THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT FROM THE GULF SHIFTS INTO THE INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL STALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE ARCTIC AS THAT
FRONT SHIFTS NORTH WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 TO 45 MPH TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR (HIGHEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN) PEAKS MIDDAY, THEN WINDS TAPER OFF SLOWLY
THIS EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE S INTERIOR
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINS OVER VALLEYS AND A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE FRONT STALLS AND SHOWERS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH TO MAINLY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AK RANGE BY WED.
TEMPS ARE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHER MIN RH WITH THAT TREND THROUGH
TUE. ISOLATED WET THUNDER CHANCES RETURN TUE AND WED NEAR AND OVER
THE AK RANGE AND ACROSS THE YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER AT EAGLE BROKE UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
BREAKUP FRONT THAT WAS STALLED DOWNSTREAM OF EAGLE NEAR THE
TATONDUK RIVER, HAS STARTED MOVING AGAIN. WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE
BREAKUP FRONT REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THE ICE JAM EAST OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER, 6 MILES UPRIVER FROM THE MOUTH OF THE FORTYMILE,
IS STILL IN PLACE AND RIVER LEVELS ARE STARTING TO RISE IN DAWSON.
WITH THE BREAKUP FRONT AGAIN ON THE MOVE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WHEN IT REACHES CIRCLE, WHICH COULD BE
AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT MAY BE SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ICE JAMMING.
VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST RIVER UPDATES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
IT APPEARS THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO W ALASKA LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON A FRONT TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST COAST UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY NOW, WITH IT ALSO BEING
FURTHER SOUTH. BESIDES SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR, IT LOOKS FAIRLY
DRY AND SEASONAL ACROSS THE MAINLAND FOR THE EXTENDED.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ832-834.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ833.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ838>846.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-812-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805-816-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-817-850-858-859.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-860-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
AHSENMACHER
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