798
FXAK69 PAFG 052329
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 PM AKDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ABATE THIS
EVENING WITH WIND ADVISORIES SET TO EXPIRE, THOUGH STRONG EAST
WINDS, FOG, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER TERRAIN
AND SOUTH TO THE ALASKA RANGE. THE WEST COAST REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH
AND 45 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR WILL EASE THIS
EVENING WITH WIND ADVISORIES SET TO EXPIRE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE AK RANGE AND WHITE MTNS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
AND EAST OF SALCHA, AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF DOT LAKE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH FOR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, THE COAST IS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASE LATE MONDAY EVENING.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- EAST WINDS BRINGING STRATUS, LIGHT SNOW, FOG AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT
TIMES, MOSTLY DUE TO FOG, BUT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWABLE SNOW IS
LOW AND FOR NOW, WE WILL MAINTAIN AN SPS.
- BROOKS RANGE REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY
WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 990 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA SOUTH OF KODIAK AND A 1033 MB HIGH NORTH OF UTQIAGVIK IN
THE ARCTIC HAS A STRONG NE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
IS BRINGING STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT BOTH FEATURES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP. WILL PLAN TO ALLOW WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AT
THEIR CURRENT END TIMES. THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ALSO
ROTATING MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE EAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEAKENING FEATURES, THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ABATE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH A QUIET PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED ON TUESDAY MOSTLY
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND EAST OF SALCHA, THEN JUST EAST OF DOT
LAKE ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO MOST SNOW FREE AREAS FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 35%
AND 50% FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT HAS REACHED 4 MILES
DOWNSTREAM OF CIRCLE AS OF 1PM MONDAY. THE BREAKUP FRONT IS SET
TO REACH STRONGER ICE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF AN ICE JAM OCCURS,
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE TOP OF THE ICE RUN
MADE IT PAST CIRCLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST LIGHT ICE
OBSERVED UPSTREAM. THE BREAKUP FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FT.
YUKON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAMMING
OCCURING DOWNSTREAM, JUST ABOVE 6 MILE ISLAND.
VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST RIVER UPDATES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
IT APPEARS THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO W ALASKA
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON A FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST UNTIL MONDAY OR TUESDAY
NOW, WITH IT ALSO BEING FURTHER SOUTH. BESIDES SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR, IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AND SEASONAL ACROSS THE MAINLAND FOR
THE EXTENDED.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ832-834.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ833.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ838>846.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-811-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804>806-816-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-812-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ813-859.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814-860-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
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