740
FXAK69 PAFG 061317 AAA
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1224 AM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2025
**UPDATED TO REFLECT CANCELLED BLIZZARD WARNING**
SYNOPSIS
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND EVEN INTO THE
ARCTIC PLAIN ALONG THE DALTON HWY. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WELL, BEHIND A FRONT WHICH TRACKED
INLAND FROM THE GULF OF AK. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BRING MORE RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE S INTERIOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BREAKUP CONTINUES ALONG THE YUKON RIVER WITH THE
BREAKUP FRONT NOW PAST CIRCLE, HOWEVER ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS A
THREAT FROM FORT YUKON TO CIRCLE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A COLD LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S INTERIOR LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING
TUE NIGHT, AS LOW AS 400 FEET NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION RATES. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE PARKS HWY
CORRIDOR OF THE AK RANGE, WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
RICHARDSON SIDE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS TO THE WHITE MTNS, AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE E AK RANGE. THURSDAY IS DRYING OUT WITH ONLY REMNANT SHOWERS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR THE S INTERIOR TO THE AK RANGE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR THE AK RANGE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE PARKS HWY SIDE, AND 1 TO 3
FOR THE RICHARDSON SIDE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE YUKON VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTON SOUND AND
SEWARD PENINSULA TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY, SPREADING INTO THE S YUKON VALLEY. NORTH WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ARE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADS WEST FROM THE YUKON VALLEY TO THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND E NORTON SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY AND THU OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
AND S YUKON VALLEYS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND INTO THE ARCTIC
PLAIN, WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY ALONG THE
DALTON HWY SOUTH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN EASTERLY
WITH BLOWING SNOW LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WINDS WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
AN END TO BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
- BLIZZARD HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE DALTON HWY SOUTH OF DEADHORSE,
ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW DOESN'T FULLY TAPER OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
- QUIETER AND MORE BENIGN WEATHER DEVELOPS WED AND THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THERE IS A 524 DAM STACKED LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF AK WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AROUND 995 MB. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE
YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS. A REMNANT FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT
RAINFALL FROM THE LOWER TANANA VALLEY TO THE YUKON VALLEY. A 550
DAM HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE ARCTIC WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AROUND
1029 MB. STRONG EAST WINDS TO GALE FORCE PERSISTS THIS MORNING
OVER THE E ARCTIC WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AND DAMPER WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR LIGHT WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FROM THE S INTERIOR TO
THE AK RANGE TONIGHT AND WED. MIN RH VALUES ARE ON THE RISE INTO
THE 40 PERCENT RANGE, IF NOT HIGHER, FOR THE ENTIRE MAINLAND.
ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE SE INTERIOR AND YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS, KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE AK RANGE. DRYING BACK OUT ON THU BUT
STILL COOLER.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT HAS REACHED 4 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF
CIRCLE AS OF 1PM MONDAY. THE BREAKUP FRONT IS SET TO REACH
STRONGER ICE THROUGH MIDWEEK. IF AN ICE JAM OCCURS, MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM FORT YUKON TO CIRCLE. THE
BREAKUP FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FT. YUKON EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAMMING OCCURING DOWNSTREAM, JUST
ABOVE 6 MILE ISLAND.
VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST RIVER UPDATES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 5/12 00Z. ALL OF
THEM ARE KEEPING THE LOW IN THE GULF SOUTH OF THE COAST, AND
EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED SE BY OTHER FEATURES. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH, FROM THE ARCTIC, OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING IN DRIER WEATHER AND COOLER SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN REGARDS TO THE NEXT STORM MOVING
UP THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, THE EC LAGS THE FRONT BEHIND THE GFS AND
GEM AS THOSE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT REACHING NOME BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BRING IN MORE PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. UNCERTAINTY REMAIN HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
-TWOMBLY
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ833.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-811-817-856-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804>806-816-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ813.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ814-860-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850-853-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ859.
-AHSENMACHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page