000
FXAK69 PAFG 072351
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
351 PM AKDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS OF SNOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
THEY TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW SHIFTS WEST AND
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
YK DELTA AND NORTON SOUND AREAS ON THE EAST PERIPHERY OF A LOW
IN THE BERING SEA WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHOWERS IN SOME CASES, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL
HAVE DIURNAL COMPONENTS WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE MORE / HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION DURING DAYTIME HEATING.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
A LOW-PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING WEST TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR PARTS OF THE S INTERIOR
TO THE AK RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE ENDING AS THE
LOW SHIFTS WEST.
- ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE AK RANGE,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR DURING THE DAYTIME.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S EXPECTED LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND A LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE YK DELTA AND NORTON
SOUND AREAS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE DAYTIME OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM AND LOWER YUKON VALLEYS.
- TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR RISE INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
MOSTLY CLEAR AND BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTH SLOPE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
- WEST WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 532 DM UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FOCUSED SOUTH OF ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, AND A VERTICALLY-STACKED 528 DM UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA IS COLOCATED WITH A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW. A 533
DM UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS IS BRINGING SNOW TO THE
ALASKA RANGE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR EACH DAY DURING THE
DAYTIME.
FIRE WEATHER...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THURSDAY IN THE INTERIOR, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SNOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE AHEAD OF MORE
SUBSTANTIVE WARMING FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WHEN WIDESPREAD
50S AND 60S WILL BE LIKELY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
DRYING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS IN THE KUSKOKWIM AND
LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAYTIME.
HYDROLOGY
THE YUKON RIVER AT FT. YUKON BROKE UP TUESDAY WITH MINOR
FLOODING FROM AN ICE JAM THAT RELEASED OVERNIGHT. THE BREAKUP
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT STEVENS VILLAGE AND THE DALTON HIGHWAY
BRIDGE SOMETIME TODAY OR THURSDAY.
VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC FOR THE LATEST RIVER UPDATES.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
GENERAL TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND
THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME, WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH FROM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE MAINLAND
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM A LOW MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA NEXT WEEK-- THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT PUSHING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW TOWARD THE WEST COAST FASTER AND WITH A
MORE ROBUST SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY RAIN, MOVING INTO
THE INTERIOR, WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND KEEPS MORE OF
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. THE GEM MOVES THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
WHILE LEAVING THE INTERIOR COMPARATIVELY DRYER THAN THE OTHER
TWO DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. ANY ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH THE
LOW AND RELATIVE IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK IT FOLLOWS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
DS
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