456
FXAK69 PAFG 302054
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1254 PM AKDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONTINUES THIS
WEEK. A LOW IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND SPREADING RAIN
FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR FROM THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY SOUTH
THROUGH THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL
HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY IN MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS
SOAR INTO THE MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
- HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INCREASING
WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A BERING SEA STORM IS SPREADING RAIN INTO THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH TO BRISTOL BAY.
THESE RAINS WILL BE HEAVIEST MONDAY, BUT LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.
- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SUSTAINED VALUES OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS IN BERING SEA THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE NORTON AND
KOTZEBUE SOUNDS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE AT NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH
WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN ALASKAN RANGE. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED TODAY
BY WRAP AROUND FLOW FROM THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN YUKON. IN THE WEST A
BERING SEA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPREADING RAIN AND BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR FROM THE BRISTOL BAY
NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK FOR THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR...THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE NORTH SLOPE. HOT...DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY WAS COORDINATED WITH AICC AND POSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS A
PRECAUTION WE EXPANDED THIS WATCH TO INCLUDE THE FAIRBANKS AREA
AND AREAS TO THE WEST (MARGINAL WINDS). SMOKE SHOULD BEGIN TO
BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MORE
HAZE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS. WINDS DROP OFF ON
THURSDAY BUT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. IN THE EXTENDED
MORE OF THE SAME WITH PERSISTENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE BOROUGH. SHORTWAVES WILL UNDERCUT
THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE WILL BE THE HOTTEST THEY HAVE BEEN SO FAR IN 2025.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID 80S AND RH DROPS BELOW 30%
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS START TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY; CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUGGESTS MINIMUM
RH NEAR 15 TO 20%, AREAS OF HIGHEST CONCERN ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
FAIRBANKS TO THE ALCAN BORDER. FURTHERMORE, WEDNESDAY WINDS BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED FROM THE NORTHEAST, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
10MPH AND GUSTS REACHING 15 TO 20MPH. WITH THAT SAID,
GAPS/CHANNELS IN TERRAIN WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS. ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM SEWARD PENINSULA TO BRISTOL
BAY EXPECTING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS ALONG THE RIVERS. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN
IN THE WEST OR ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ931>947-949-953.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
MAIER/PARK
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