819
FXAK69 PAFG 012211
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INCREASING
THE FIRE DANGER. A DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN
WESTERN ALASKA RAIN ALONG THE COAST FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY...UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TODAY IN MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS
WARM INTO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY.
- HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INCREASING
WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND FAR WESTERN INTERIOR FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH TO BRISTOL BAY. THESE RAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY.
- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN ALASKA REMAIN STRONG INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED VALUES OF 20 TO
30 MPH EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS IN BERING SEA THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE NORTON AND KOTZEBUE SOUNDS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- STRONG EAST WINDS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY OVER THE FAR WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE INTERIOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO
WARRANT THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. COORDINATION TOOK PLACE WITH AICC
AND OUR IMETS. THOSE WINDS DECREASE ON THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL STILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE PLUME DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE FIRES. IN WESTERN ALASKA RAIN ALONG THE COAST FROM BRISTOL
BAY TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE BERING SEA LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH. WE DEFINITELY HAVE
LOW LEVEL HAZE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS TOWARD THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE WRF PUSHES THE SMOKE WEST AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT HELP KEEP THE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. IN THE EXTENDED THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC COAST.
SHORTWAVES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. TIMING OF THOSE SHORTWAVES IS
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. BEST TAKE ATTM IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WESTWARD TO THE NULATO HILLS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS MUCH DRIER AIR AS PUSHED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
ARCTIC/YUKON. WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST;
BY-AND-LARGE MOST OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD SEE 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FOLKS ON FIRES IN MORE COMPLEX TERRAIN,
KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON CHANNELS/GAPS/VALLEYS EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALSO ALONG RIDGETOPS, WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS OF
30MPH IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MINIMUM RH
HITTING THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR, RECOVERY OF
RH IN THE MORNING IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WORSEN, PERHAPS
REACHING AS HIGH AS 60%.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN TANANA VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO
PENETRATE FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON ANY
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS STEERING WINDS WILL PUSH THEM TO THE
WEST. ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD REACH 30 TO 40 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS ALONG THE RIVERS. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RAIN
IN THE WEST OR ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ931>935-938>947-949.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
MAIER/PARK
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