185
FXAK69 PAFG 022107
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 PM AKDT WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE INTERIOR
TERRAIN. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR WITH AN EXTENSION TO TOMORROW EXPECTED IN THE TERRAIN
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS, AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL RED FLAGS EXPECTED FOR
THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY. ON THE NORTH SLOPE, IT WILL BE HOT AND
DRY FROM ATIGUN PASS NORTH/WEST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. THE WEST COAST IS GOING TO
HAVE SOME HEAT AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN 60S/70S AND PUSHING 80
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO KIVALINA TOMORROW
THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25 MPH.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WITH A HIGH
WIND GUST POTENTIAL TODAY.
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW IN THE HILLS
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE UPPER KOBUK AND LOWER KOYUKUK
VALLEYS TOMORROW FOR HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM GALENA
TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HOT AND DRY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- AN ISOLATED STORM TODAY FROM HUSLIA TO GALENA, ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW
ARCTIC BOROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FROM THE BROOKS RANGE TO
THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ATIGUN PASS IS
INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY, BUT PEAK TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 70.
- HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, IN THE
ARCTIC PLAINS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM UTQIAGVIK TO BARTER ISLAND.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE WHICH IS BRINGING HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BUT
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR DOWNBURST OR MICROBURST THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. 18Z PAFA
SPECIAL SOUNDING SHOWED DCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 600J/KG, GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO UPPER LEVELS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SHORTWAVE THAT SPARKS STORMS IN THE
TANANA UPLANDS, THEN PUSHES THEM SOUTH OVER THE VALLEY. A LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WHICH WILL ACT AS A
CAPPING MECHANISM, BUT IF MODELED SOUNDINGS ARE A FEW DEGREES OFF
WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES, IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.
OTHERWISE, TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE QUIETER ON THE THUNDERSTORM FRONT
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR, BUT WE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC BOROUGH. HOT, DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE HILLS NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS. HOT
AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE BIG DAYS FOR FIRE WEATHER AS WE ARE
HOT, DRY AND WINDY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
MIN RHS AROUND 20-25% AND WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN THE
VALLEYS AND 30 MPH IN THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS. THIS EVENING, RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND WEST, WHILE
THE WARNINGS IN THE HILLS/MOUNTAINS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING AS GUSTY WINDS REMAIN PREVALENT.
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TODAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLATED STORMS IN THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE COULD BE GUSTY
WITH OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30 TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. OTHERWISE OUT WEST, THE UPPER KOBUK AND LOWER KOYUKUK
VALLEYS WILL BE INCREASING THEIR EAST WINDS AND WE HAVE A RED FLAG
ISSUED THERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING HOT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE
NOTICING AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. A
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ALSO TRY TO BRING HEAVY RAIN BACK
INTO THE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY PUT ANOTHER PAUSE ON FIRE WEATHER. RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE
IN THAT IS MEDIUM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD A BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN OVERALL.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ931>935-938>947-949.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page