895
FNAK79 PAFG 042254
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR NENANA RIDGE COMPLEX...IMT - GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 PM AKDT FRI JUL 4 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 AKDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SITREP:
AS OF 230PM JULY 4TH, OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING WINDS BELOW 10
MPH ACROSS THE FIRE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S AND
RH DROPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT. WINDS ARE LARGELY TERRAIN DRIVEN,
WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HERE IN FAIRBANKS AT 200FT
ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR. THE FIRE IS LIKELY SEEING SIMILAR WINDS
ALONG RIDGES AND VALLEYS, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY IMPACTING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF GOLDSTREAM CREEK FIRE. LOOKING OUT OUR WINDOWS, THE
THICK SMOKE IS REALLY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. IF WE CAN
PUSH SMOKE OUT LATER THIS EVENING FROM ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS,
THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER AND LOWER RH EVEN FURTHER.
FORECAST:
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT, INCREASING NORTH EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE SURROUNDING AREA. THERE IS CONCERN FOR ELEVATED
WINDS IN THE TANANA RIVER VALLEY JUST WEST OF THE GOLDSTREAM CREEK
FIRE.
WE ANTICIPATE 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE UPPER RIDGES AND ALSO IN THE
VALLEY TO THE WEST OF THE FIRE ALONG THE TANANA RIVER. THESE
WINDS WILL HELP EXTEND PEAK BURN PERIODS TONIGHT, WITH NOT MUCH
OF AN INVERSION SETTING UP AND VERY POOR RH RECOVERY, ESPECIALLY
FOR ANY FIRE IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HILLS.
SATURDAY WE EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, LIKELY THE
HOTTEST OF THE WEEK, WITH EASTERLY WINDS IMPACTING THE FIRE.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RH
DIMINISHING BELOW 25 PERCENT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST 12 GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...N/A
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 15 MPH GUST 25 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST WINDS 15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....AFTER 3AM.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST WINDS 10 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 8AM.
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...RACHEL FONVIELLE, PSC3(T)
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517228.3/AFG
.DELDT 07/04/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RACHEL_FONVIELLE@FIRENET.GOV
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