000
FXAK69 PAFG 050125
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
525 PM AKDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE AND INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT WITH SLIGHT
COOLING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT MONDAY
TOWARD COOLER AND MORE DAMP CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO RE-ENTER THE EQUATION ON SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
BROOKS RANGE, AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- HOT, DRY AND WINDY IN THE HILLS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS, WHITE
MOUNTAINS, CHENA HILLS AND NORTHERN INTERIOR.
- HEAT ADVISORIES EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY FROM TANANA TO
EIELSON TODAY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- HOT, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THROUGH
MONDAY IN THE NW INTERIOR. SLIGHT MODERATION ON SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, WITH THE MOST COVERAGE OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND KOBUK
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
- COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- HOT AND DRY, ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST AND IN THE BROOKS
RANGE WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN BE AS HIGH AS 85 DEGREES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES
IS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY
OTHERWISE WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH
ON SATURDAY BEFORE A LOW MOVING FROM THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS BEGINS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD BROAD TROUGHING
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE COMPLETELY
BREAKS DOWN AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW RH VALUES, AND BREEZY WINDS ARE
FORECASTED.
AREAS NORTHWEST, EAST, AND SOUTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS:
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH FORTYMILE, WHITE MOUNTAINS,
AND TANANA VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE INTERIOR. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. THIS WIND WILL ALSO
LIMIT INVERSIONS FROM SETTING UP AND KEEPING RH RECOVERY BELOW 60
PERCENT. SOME RIDGETOPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TO 40%, MAINLY
NEAR THE CHATANIKA RIVER AND WEST TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. SIMPLY
PUT, INCREASING THE BURN PERIOD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY FIRE ALONG UPPER RIDGES AND/OR ELEVATED
TERRAIN. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR PEAKS, LIKELY INTO
THE UPPER 80S, WITH SOUTHERLY EXPOSED RAWS SITES REACHING 90.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET BACK DOWN TO THE LOW 20S TO UPPER
TEENS. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST BUT EXPECTING GUSTS TO
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. THE BURN PERIOD WILL EXTEND LATER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL JET, THOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO COME LARGELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT.
FIRES NEAR/ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE:
WE ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE GAPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A THERMAL LOW IN THE
INTERIOR. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH
GUSTS REACHING 35 MPH, OUT OF THE PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WE ANTICIPATE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE NOT A SEASON ENDING EVENT, EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RH.
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST:
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WESTERN REGION INTO
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S AND LOW 80S, ALONG
WITH RH DIMINISHING INTO THE 20S. THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY WILL BE A
BIT MORE HUMID, WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG THE FOOT OF
THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS WEST
TO NORTON SOUND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT CONSIDERING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN MOST OF
WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH HIGHER NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SEWARD PENINSULA, THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY, AND
YK DELTA INTO SUNDAY. MOISTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE
ON SUNDAY, WITH MIN RH VALUES RISING CONSIDERABLY IN MOST AREAS.
BY MONDAY WE ANTICIPATE WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AN ARCTIC TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE LATE ON TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE. A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING UPWARD WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT STILL LOOK TO BE SPOTTY WITH CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
WETTING RAIN UNLIKELY FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ935>937-939>941-943>945-947-953.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR AKZ806>809-813-814-816-818-819-822-823-828-829-
831>833-846.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ928-931>933.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ934-938-942.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ937-947.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
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