146
FNAK79 PAFG 050356
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR NENANA RIDGE COMPLEX...IMT - GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
756 PM AKDT FRI JUL 4 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2100 AKDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
AS OF 7:30PM AKDT JULY 4TH OBSERVED WINDS NEAR THE REMAINED LIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND MINIMUM RHS NEAR 30 AT THE DIVISION
A LOOKOUT. AS OF 7PM A RAWS SITE ROUGHLY 40 MILES NE OF THE FIRE
REPORTED A LARGE JUMP IN THEIR WINDS WITH NE GUSTS OF 18MPH. THESE
STRONGER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO REACH THE FIRE AROUND 2100
GIVE OR TAKE 15 MINUTES. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE GUSTS WILL BE FELT ALONG RIDGETOPS AND CHANNELS/VALLEYS OPEN
TO THE NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ANTICIPATED. THESE STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL HELP EXTEND THE
PEAK BURN PERIOD. VERY POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY FIRES NEAR THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HILLS.
SATURDAY WE EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, LIKELY THE
HOTTEST OF THE WEEK, WITH EASTERLY WINDS IMPACTING THE FIRE.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND RH
DIMINISHING BELOW 25 PERCENT.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST WINDS 15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....WEAK BOTTOM OF VALLEY INVERSION 10PM.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST WINDS 10 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...10AM.
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH WITHS 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 1AM.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 11 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...10AM.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
6 MPH.
TUESDAY
HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
7 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
FORECASTER...STOKES
REQUESTED BY...RACHEL FONVIELLE, PSC3(T)
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517228.4/AFG
.DELDT 07/04/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RACHEL_FONVIELLE@FIRENET.GOV
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