391
FNAK79 PAFG 050947
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR NENANA RIDGE COMPLEX...IMT - GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
147 AM AKDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0200 AKDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THANK YOU TO THE CREWS PROVIDING OBSERVATIONS. THIS WAS A
TREMENDOUS HELP.
AS OF 0130 JULY 5TH, SURFACE OBS NEAR THE FIRE SHOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 70F AND RH NEAR 37 PERCENT NEAR THE PARKS HIGHWAY.
WE BELIEVE THICK SMOKE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON HELPED CREATE A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE EVENING, WHICH MAY HAVE HELPED
KEEP STRONGER WINDS AT BAY. WITH THAT SAID, TREES ALONG OUR RIDGE
HERE AT WFO FAIRBANKS ARE STARTING TO FEEL NORTHEAST WINDS, LIKELY
8 TO 12 MPH.
THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS IF A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION SETTING UP IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL HELP INCREASE WINDS AT RIDGETOPS, AS
THERE WILL BE A MORE NARROW FOCUS OF MOMENTUM ALOFT. WE APPROACH
CAUTIOUSLY. I HAVE TRIMMED DOWN WINDS A TOUCH BUT STILL ANTICIPATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE 4AM WEATHER BALLOON
LAUNCH AT FAIRBANKS AIRPORT WILL BE VERY REVEALING.
SATURDAY WE ARE STILL HIGHLIGHTING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH
AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT. IF WE CAN PUSH SMOKE OUT OF THE AREA
EXPECT STRONGER WINDS AS WE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER MIXING. IF WE
CAN RETAIN THICK SMOKE, THIS WILL HELP STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THUS PREVENT HIGHER WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE US FROM
FULLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SUNDAY EXPECT A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT FOR WINDS,
BECOMING WESTERLY MONDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT NEAR PARKS HIGHWAY. 90 PERCENT OR HIGHER IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORHTEAST 8 TO 12 GUST 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....SHALLOW INVERSION IS IN PLACE AS OF 0100.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST 10 GUST 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 14 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 9 AM, A LITTLE SOOONER THAN FRIDAY.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....AFTER 10PM.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...RACHEL FONVIELLE, PSC3(T)
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517228.4/AFG
.DELDT 07/05/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RACHEL_FONVIELLE@FIRENET.GOV
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