640
FNAK79 PAFG 051348
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR 379 DUCK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
548 AM AKDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 AKDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SITREP:
OVER THE EVENING OF JULY 4TH, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA
REPORTED MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO 80S, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 30 PERCENT AT THE QUARTZ CREEK RAWS (QRZA2). WINDS WERE
BREEZY, WITH MAX GUSTS OF 27 TO 39 MPH, HIGHEST WINDS AT THE
TELLER AIRPORT. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT REACHED QUARTZ RAWS NEAR
6PM, WITH TELLER AIRPORT STILL REPORTING SOUTHERLY WINDS; THE FIRE
WAS LIKELY RIGHT IN BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIMES. THIS SATURDAY
MORNING WE ARE SEEING DECENT RH RECOVERY NEAR 70 PERCENT, WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS REACHED JUST WEST
OF KOYUK, WITH SOME CLOUDS, LEFTOVERS FROM THE CONVECTIVE STORMS,
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
FORECAST:
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY WE ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S, WITH RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY, GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
LEANING PESSIMISTIC HERE AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
THESE WINDS OVER THE AREA. PLEASE REPORT TO DISPATCH IF YOU ARE
SEEING STRONGER/WEAKER WINDS THAN ADVERTISED SO WE CAN CORRECT THE
SPOT FORECAST.
ALSO, WILL SEE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOYUK
AND NORTH OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE, WITH DECREASED CONFIDENCE
THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH OVER THE FIRE. MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST, LIKELY BECOMING MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY, WITH PEAK SPEEDS OVER THE AFTERNOON GUSTING
TO NEAR 20 MPH.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT THIS MORNING.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 GUST 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 10AM.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 13 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....NEAR 11PM.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 15 GUST 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 13 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 10AM.
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...NOAH SCHULZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517342.1/AFG
.DELDT 07/05/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL AKYFDC@FIRENET.GOV
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