866
FNAK79 PAFG 051421
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR NINTYEIGHT...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
621 AM AKDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0708 AKDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
OVER JULY 4TH BRIGADIER RAWS (BDRA2) REPORTED MAX TEMPS OF 80,
MINIMUM RH OF 27 PERCENT, AND MAX WIND GUST OF 15MPH. WINDS WERE
MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH THICK SMOKE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
LIMITING HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER,
ONE ITEM OF CONCERN IS THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING A MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER THIS MORNING AND LIMITING RH RECOVERY, WHICH WE CAN SEE
CLEARLY IN THE BDRA2 RAWS, REPORTING 42 PERCENT RH AS OF 0615 JULY
5TH.
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY WE EXPECT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
REACH THEIR PEAK, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S, AND RH VALUES BACK INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
EXPECT FIRE BEHAVIOR TO RAMP UP EARLIER TODAY AS THERE ISNT MUCH
OF AN INVERSION TO BREAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE VALLEYS. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE UPSLOPE FLOW
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DOMINATE THE FIRE, WITH EASTERLY FLOW
ALONG RIDGES, GUSTS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUNDAY A PATTERN SHIFT IS IN THE WORKS, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER RH IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN FROM
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS FROM OUTFLOW.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST 8 TO 12 GUST 18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 11 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 8AM.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT.
RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST WINDS 10 GUST 15MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....NEAR 11PM.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......SCATTERED.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP WIND.......LIGHT BECOMING WEST 8 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 7 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 9AM.
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...BEVIN PROTAS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516973.5/AFG
.DELDT 07/05/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BPROTAS@BLM.GOV,THATFIELD@BLM.GOV,JRAY@BLM.GOV,TYPETERSON222@GMAIL.COM,AKYFDC@FIRENET.GOV,DAVID_GELDERLOOS@FIRENET.GOV,LBURWELL@BLM.GOV,JWJOHANSON@BLM.GOV
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