809
FNAK79 PAFG 051447
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELEPHANT FIRE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
647 AM AKDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 AKDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOMORROW,
WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR TODAY, MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS AT THE FIRE'S
ELEVATION REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH WINDS POSSIBLE UP TO 20 MPH. AS WE GRADUALLY SEE A SHIFT IN
PATTERN, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS POSSIBLE FROM TODAY
TO TOMORROW, FROM THE MID 20% TO THE UPPER 40%, RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TODAY, WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND INTO TOMORROW WITH A HIGH TEMP IN THE MID 70S. AN
INVERSION LAYER MAY BUILD AROUND 1 AM AND BREAK DOWN AROUND 11 AM.
TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSITIONING TO EAST WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 16 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...N/A.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....AROUND 0100 SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......WIDELY SCT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP WIND.......EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...AROUND 1100.
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
TUESDAY
HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...SRINIVASAN
REQUESTED BY...ECHO CUNNINGHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517267.1/AFG
.DELDT 07/05/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ACUNNINGHAM@BLM.GOV
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