193
FNAK79 PAFG 052042
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR NENANA RIDGE COMPLEX...IMT - GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1242 PM AKDT SAT JUL 5 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1300 AKDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
UPDATED TO HIGHLIGHT A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS RH/TEMPS
CONCERNS.
A RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURE IS MOVING OVER THE AREA BRINGING
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE NENANA RIDGE COMPLEX. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION TO AREAS THAT GET
SOUTHEAST CHANNEL FLOW. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ONLY LAST FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS AS THE FEATURE IS SMALL AND FAST.
LOOKING UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE THE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO AN
EAST-NORTHEAST DIRECTION.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING TEMPERATURES CAN EASILY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS, MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE LOW 20S THE DRIEST AIR IS REMAINING ROUGHLY 20 MILES NORTH
OF THE FIRE. WE ARE WATCHING THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE RICK'S CREEK
FIRE EAST OF EIELSON, AND ITS ROUGHLY 2 HOURS FROM THE FAIRBANKS
AIRPORT. WHEN THE SMOKE PLUME DOES ARRIVE TO NENANA RIDGE AT ABOUT 3 PM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND KEEP THE RH FROM
BOTTOMING OUT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
TURNING EAST AROUND 7 MPH AFTER 230 PM.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH, GUST TO 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
TURNING EAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER 230 PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 13 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...N/A
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 GUST 20 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 GUST 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....NEAR 3AM.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 9AM
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 6 MPH.
TUESDAY
HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
8 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...DENNIS
REQUESTED BY...RACHEL FONVIELLE, PSC3(T)
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517228.4/AFG
.DELDT 07/04/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RACHEL_FONVIELLE@FIRENET.GOV
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