680
FNAK79 PAFG 060926
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR NENANA RIDGE COMPLEX...IMT - GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
126 AM AKDT SUN JUL 6 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0130 AKDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THE SOUTHERLY SURGE HAS HIT THE FIRES. LOOKING AT PAPD (PEDRO
DOME) RADAR THE SURGE HIT THE NENANA COMPLEX NEAR 11PM-MIDNIGHT,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 18 KNOTS. SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SHOW
ANY GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 MPH, BUT THINKING MOST OBS ARE NOT WELL
SITUATED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL WE CAN VERIFY OBS.
FURTHERMORE, AS OF 1AM SUNDAY, BONA2 NEAR PARKS HIGHWAY IS REPORTING 33
PERCENT RH WHICH CERTAINLY SUGGESTS CONTINUED ACTIVE FIRE THROUGH
THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE FIRE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SURFACE
INVERSION IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF NEAR 9AM.
FOR SUNDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES (NEAR 80)...HUMIDITIES
(NEAR 25%) AND THE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DURING THE PEAK
BURNING WINDOW. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COLUMN IS LIKELY. VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY SMOKE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY; MAIN THREAT TO CREWS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THAT COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER SHOULD AID YOUR WILDFIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). HAZE AND AREAS OF
SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................17 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHERLY WINDS 8 TO 12. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUST TO 20.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 9AM.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). HAZE AND AREAS
OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................17 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......ISOLATED.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....NEAR 11PM.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). HAZE AND AREAS OF
SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................16 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......WEST-SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 13 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...NEAR 9AM.
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...RACHEL FONVIELLE, PSC3(T)
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517228.6/AFG
.DELDT 07/05/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RACHEL_FONVIELLE@FIRENET.GOV
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