206
FNAK79 PAFG 101429
FWSAFG
SPOT FORECAST FOR 374 SHILIAK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
629 AM AKDT THU JUL 10 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 AKDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
OVER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THE FIRE SAW BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS,
BASED OFF MT. NOAK RAWS AND RALPH WIEN AIRPORT. LOOKING AT
TERRAIN, I IMAGINE THERE WAS A SLIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT. WITH
THAT SAID, HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SHELTERING
OF THE HIGHER WINDS, SO COULD BE SEEING MUCH LESS WIND OVER THE
FIRE. TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE 50S, WITH RH HITTING 35 TO 40
PERCENT.
FORECAST:
A LOW AT 500MB IS CURRENTLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST, BRINGING
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER AS SEEN ON THE FAA WEB CAMERAS IN THE
AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING
OUT FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND RH FOR
THURSDAY. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SPRINKLES OF RAIN OVER THE FIRE
THIS EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS.
OVER THE WEEKEND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50 TO 60S, AND RH REACHING CRITICAL VALUES. BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ANTICIPATED, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 11 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...11AM.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
INVERSION SETUP.....8PM.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TSTM COVERAGE.......NONE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP WIND.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
INVERSION BURNOFF...12PM.
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...GALENA ZONE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517259.10/AFG
.DELDT 07/10/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL AKYFDC@FIRENET.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page