952
FXAK69 PAFG 062335
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
335 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE INTERIOR IS WARM AND DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A TRANSIENT
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. THE ALASKA RANGE WILL BE WINDY ON THURSDAY AS
A FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN WILL BE GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
BECOME WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BROOKS RANGE ON SATURDAY AS WELL,
THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTH SLOPE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN WE'VE BEEN LATELY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM AND DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND MIN
RHS IN THE 20S AND 30S, LOWEST IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND YUKON
FLATS.
THURSDAY HAZARDS:
- WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN ISABEL PASS.
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR DELTA JUNCTION/ISABEL PASS FOR WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH AND RHS AS LOW AS 25%.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR,
WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.
- RAIN MOVES INTO SW ALASKA TOMORROW THEN SPREADS NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH 0.25 TO 0.50" IN MOST
SPOTS. SOME AREAS MAY EXCEED 0.50".
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, AND IN THE 50S/60S IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR COLDFOOT
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TRANSIENT RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST IS BRINGING
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. A LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SW
AK TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS LOW WEAKENS BUT A PIECE OF ITS ENERGY
MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO TURN
NEGATIVE AND UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE WILL ALSO SEE
SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. IN THE SOUTHERN AND SE INTERIOR,
EXPECT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLIDES ACROSS ALASKA FROM WEST TO EAST.
NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
WIDESPREAD IN THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
THE MOST IMPORTANT THING RIGHT NOW IS A RED FLAG ADVISORY IN DELTA
JUNCTION AND ISABEL PASS FOR SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND MIN RHS AROUND 25% ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY ELSEWHERE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA AND MIN RHS AROUND 35 TO 45%. RAIN
MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, THEN SUNDAY IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXPANSE OF THE RAIN, BUT OUR HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SEEING RAIN WHILE
IT'S A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. NONETHELESS,
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF
THE COAST AND INTERIOR AND THAT PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
COOL AND WET WEATHER ARRIVING ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY/D4, A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INLAND FROM THE AK
PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE SURROUNDING
FLOW, WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH/UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA
BRINGING EXTENSIVE RAINFALL TO WESTERN ALASKA (INCLUDING THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE) SHIFTS EASTWARD. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT WILL YIELD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SUNDAY. FROM MONDAY
ONWARD, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON FEATURES, BUT AS GENERAL LOW
PRESSURE/TROUGHING MOVES INLAND, SOME HEAVIER RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR, WITH UP TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS LIKELY ON THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY ONWARD AS EVEN MORE TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM
OVER THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ937.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
BIANCO
SATLZMAN - EXTENDED
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