421
FXAK69 PAFG 072300
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE LAST WARM AND DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
TODAY THEN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN ALASKA TOMORROW AS A TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. EXPECT RAIN IN THE EASTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARM AND DRY TODAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AK RANGE PASSES,
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.
- RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED FOR DELTA JUNCTION AND ISABEL PASS.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE TERRAIN. A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
- COOLER WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TODAY WILL BE A PRETTY NICE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR NORTH OF GALENA. SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
- SHOWERS IN SW ALASKA EXPAND NORTHWARD TOMORROW THEN BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES EAST SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING SHOWERS IN
ITS WAKE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NULATO HILLS NORTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS:
- 0.10 TO 0.25 FROM WALES TO NOME.
- 0.25 TO 0.50+ FROM ST. MICHAEL TO GOLOVIN, NORTH AND EAST.
- 0.25 OR LESS SOUTH AND EAST OF ST. MICHAEL.
- COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- CHILLY WEATHER PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND. RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SPREADS EAST TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
- RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS TO THE EAST.
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS:
- 0.50 TO 1.25 IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM ATQASUK TO POINT LAY.
- 0.10 TO 0.25 FROM POINT TO UMIAT NORTH/EAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THIS WEEKEND BUT WARM UP SLIGHTLY,
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ALONG THE COAST, AND 50S/60S IN THE BROOKS
RANGE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OUR WARM AND DRY LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DIGS INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TOMORROW. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN WESTERN ALASKA, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NOME, AS WELL AS IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS
WEEKEND, EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. TROUGHING
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOME TRANSIENT RIDGING MIXED
IN A TIMES MAKING FOR SOME DRIER DAYS. BUT OVERALL, WE ARE
ENTERING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IN MOST
SPOTS. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL ACTUALLY WARM UP NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE DOMINATING.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER TODAY, THERE AREN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
JUMPING OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHER RHS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE WE
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE INTERIOR TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
ONLY "CONCERN" MAY BE IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHERLY WIND AND MIN RHS AROUND 30 TO 40%.
HYDROLOGY
NO CONCERNS FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME. WESTERN INTERIOR RIVERS AND
CREEKS WILL BE RISING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GRAVEL
BARS WILL LIKELY GET COVERED BY WATER AND MAY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
COOL AND WET WEATHER ARRIVING ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY THE TIME SUNDAY/D4 ARRIVES, MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH AN EAST-MOVING TROUGH ALOFT FROM OVER
THE BERING SEA WILL HAVE DWINDLED TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, BUT
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR,
BROOKS RANGE, AND NORTH SLOPE. WHILE EXACT TOTALS WILL VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THESE AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED DUE TO
MODEL DISAGREEMENT, MOST AREAS HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A
TENTH OF AN INCH. SPOTTY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF
AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE, MOSTLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. A RIDGE ALOFT
BEHIND THIS INITIAL TROUGH WILL BRING BRIEFLY WARMER WEATHER TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S OR HIGHER. AS ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE
ALONG THE WEST COAST, RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO WESTERN ALASKA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH INLAND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SEEING
CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ937.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-807-854-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-853.
BIANCO
SALTZMAN - EXTENDED
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