931
FXAK69 PAFG 082117
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 PM AKDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN WESTERN ALASKA, HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE RAIN MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE STATE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, AND WARMER
THAN NORMAL NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. OTHER THAN THIS RAIN, OUR
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COASTAL STORM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE
BERING SEA WHICH MAY BRING IMPACTFUL WEATHER AND HIGH WATER LEVELS
TO THE THE WEST COAST.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
INTERIOR TODAY.
- HEAVIER RAIN UP TO 0.50" IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL INTERIOR, FROM
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS NORTH/WEST.
- ALASKA RANGE GAP WINDS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
ON SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY
AND ALONG THE ALCAN ON SUNDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY, DRYING OUT ON MONDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY INTO TOMORROW, HEAVY AT TIMES. STRONG
NORTH WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TOMORROW.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY RAINFALL TOTALS:
- 0.25 TO 0.50" IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
- 0.50 TO 1.00"+ IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
A POTENTIAL BERING SEA STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IMPACTS:
- 2 TO 4 FEET WATER RISES POSSIBLE, HIGHEST IN THE NORTON SOUND.
- WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION.
TIMING:
- HIGHEST WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH LIGHTER RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND ARCTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS:
- 0.10 TO 0.25" ALONG THE COAST FROM DEADHORSE WEST. (0.10 OR LESS
TO THE EAST)
- 0.25 TO 0.50" IN THE ARCTIC PLAIN WEST OF UMIAT.
- 0.20 TO 0.50" IN THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.
- 0.50 TO 1.00"+ IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
CHUKCHI SEA COAST NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHWARD.
IMPACTS:
- 2 TO 4 FOOT WATER RISES POSSIBLE. WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH
EROSION POSSIBLE.
TIMING:
- HIGHEST WATER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THE BERING STRAIT.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S THIS WEEKEND, WARMER NEXT WEEK, IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A WEAK FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST TOMORROW AND SUNDAY
GIVING MOST AREAS A DOUSING OF RAIN, HEAVIEST IN WESTERN ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE THIS WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE SMATTERINGS OF 70 IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, A TROUGHY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
BERING SEA. IMPACTS ARE LABELED ABOVE.
FIRE WEATHER
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN ALASKA TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. THIS RAIN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR TOMORROW,
THEN IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A
COUPLE OF 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
TODAY/TOMORROW.
HYDROLOGY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
RISES TO RIVERS, STREAMS AND CREEKS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOL AND WET WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THE WEST COAST ONCE AGAIN. THE
DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE BERING SEA AND PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. WE ARE GOING TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
HAZARDS, IMPACTS ARE LISTED ABOVE. LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE LOW FROM THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LARGE
SWATH OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER YUKON ALL
THE WAY UP INTO THE BROOKS RANGE AND EAST. PRECIPITATION ISN'T
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR UNTIL MIDWEEK, AND
WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE OF A LESSER INTENSITY THAN WHAT WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE LOW 60S/UPPER 50S, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY DIMINISH GOING INTO
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO CANADA, BRINGING US
CLOSER INTO THE FALL SEASON.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
A COASTAL STORM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH
WATER RISING AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA,
IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH.
WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS. IMPACTS
MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ821-822-824-825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-852-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-808.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805>807-810-853-854-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BIANCO
SANTIAGO - EXTENDED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page