400
FXAK69 PAFG 092103
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY CONDITIONS MOVE FROM THE WESTERN COAST EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BEHIND THE SHOWERS
FROM THE WEST BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM REACHES THE WEST COAST MONDAY.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND WETTER BRINGING STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND HEAVY RAIN TO LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TODAY AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY.
-RAINFALL TOTAL ESTIMATES THROUGH SUNDAY
-CENTRAL INTERIOR: 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES
-WESTERN ALASKA RANGE: 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES
-EASTERN INTERIOR ABOVE 1500 FEET: 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
-EASTERN INTERIOR BELOW 1500 FEET: 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES
-UPPER TANANA VALLEY: UP TO 0.10 INCHES.
-DUE TO SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS RAIN SOME SMALL AREAS COULD SEE
MORE OR LESS THAN THESE AMOUNTS, BUT THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY
AMOUNTS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY
AND ALONG THE ALCAN ON SUNDAY.
- COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BRIEFLY BEHIND THIS RAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FROST IN COOLER INTERIOR VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING, BUT ONLY IN
AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK MOST LIKELY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY, HEAVY AT TIMES. STRONG NORTH WINDS TO 40
MPH ALONG THE COAST THAT DIMINISH THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
-SATURDAY RAINFALL TOTALS:
-WESTERN INTERIOR: 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES, INCREASING FURTHER EAST.
-SEWARD PENINSULA: 0.10 TO 0.25 INCREASING FURTHER WEST. HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES.
- RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS.
- BERING SEA STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
-IMPACTS: 2 TO 4 FEET WATER RISES POSSIBLE, HIGHEST IN THE NORTON
SOUND. WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEST COAST.
-TIMING: HIGHEST WATER LEVELS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH LIGHTER RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND ARCTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
-ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES EXPECTED FOR
THE NORTH SLOPE WITH 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE
BROOKS RANGE.
- A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES MONDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST
-IMPACTS: 2 TO 4 FOOT WATER RISES POSSIBLE. WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.
-TIMING: HIGHEST WATER EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S THIS WEEKEND, WARMER NEXT WEEK, IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AS OF SATURDAY MORNING A 530 DAM UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE
HIGH ARCTIC NORTH OF UTQIAGVIK WITH A 539 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTON
SOUND. BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS A 998MB SURFACE LOW OVER
THE BALDWIN PENINSULA PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN AND DRAG THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY
CONDITIONS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL AS THE LOW MOVES EAST DOWN TO -3F ON THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE LOW AND TO NEAR 0
IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. FAIRBANKS EAST REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING,
BOTTOMING OUT MONDAY MORNING NEAR 1F. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUDS AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD PREVENT
STRONG INVERSIONS FROM FORMING. SHOULD CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR THE
FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE IN COOLER VALLEYS MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
A SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN. THE
RIDGING WILL MOSTLY SERVE TO PUSH THE SHOWERY CONDITIONS FROM THIS
FIRST SYSTEM EAST AND PROVIDE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY SUNDAY TO THE
WEST COAST AHEAD OF AN EVEN WETTER STORM. THIS NEXT STORM IS NOT
VERY STRONG RANGING FROM 992MB TO 998MB AT THE SURFACE AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST, BUT IT IS VERY WET AND FAIRLY WELL
ORGANIZED. STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST WITH HIGH SURF
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL DUE TO ANOTHER LOW MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS HELPING TO PULL
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THIS SYSTEM. 1
TO 2 INCHES IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST WITH
THIS EVENT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING SLOPES ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY MOVE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REACH THE
EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AMONGST THESE SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW FUELING
THEM. THIS WOULD BE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING PRESSURE AND DRYING MONDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM IN THE OVERALL PATTERN MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCREASED RAINFALL PUSHING AREAS JUST NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE WARMER AND DRIER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
RAIN REACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE
NOTABLE RISES TO WATER LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, BUT DUE TO
CURRENTLY LOW LEVELS NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOL AND WET WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THE WEST COAST ONCE AGAIN. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE BERING SEA, COUPLED WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR, WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCES BEHIND THIS NEW
PATTERN. THIS PARTICULAR SET UP IS KNOWN FOR PRESENTING COASTAL
STORM HAZARDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON
SOUND, SO WE ARE MONITORING CONDITIONS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS (MORE DETAILS BELOW). LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO
NEXT FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE MAINLY FOR
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH THE SURROUNDING AREAS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY LIGHTER STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING
THIS TIME, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE
LOW 60S/UPPER 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S. A DRIER PATTERN LOOKS
TO CREEP BACK IN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER MODEL AGREEMENT ISN'T TOO STRONG AS
OF RIGHT NOW. FOR THE TIME BEING, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BRING US
CLOSER TO THE FALL SEASON.
- SANTIAGO
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS
WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH WATER
RISING AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA, IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH WATER LEVELS
ALSO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO
50 MPH. WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS.
IMPACTS PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY
AS THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS DO NOT LAST AS LONG AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ821-822-824-825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-803-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805>807-810-852-854-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-850-857.
STOKES
EXTENDED- SANTIAGO
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