098
FXAK69 PAFG 102225
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS OUT WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR CLEAR SOMEWHAT AND SEE WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MOVE
EAST TO THE BORDER SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER 0.10 TO 0.35 INCHES
OF RAIN TO THE INTERIOR. ELEVATED AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE 0.10 INCHES OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THIS RAIN WILL BE
SHOWERY ALLOWING SOME AREAS TO SEE MORE OR LESS, ALTHOUGH THIS
RANGE IS MOST LIKELY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AMONGST THE SHOWERS EAST OF
FAIRBANKS SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES COOL FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND HIGHS WEST
OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
COOL IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER GUSTS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK MOST LIKELY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RELATIVELY DRY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS.
- BERING SEA STORM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS:
-2 TO 4 FEET WATER RISES POSSIBLE, HIGHEST IN THE NORTON SOUND.
-WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.
-HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP TO 2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE.
-RIVERS/STREAMS EXPECTED TO SEE NOTABLE RISES IN WATER LEVEL.
-STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEST COAST, EXCEPT THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WHERE
GUSTS UP TO 55MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
TIMING:
-HIGHEST WATER LEVELS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWO PEAKS ARE EXPECTED, THE FIRST MONDAY
EVENING AND THE SECOND TUESDAY EVENING.
-HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT, REACH THEIR PEAK
MONDAY EVENING, WEAKEN TUESDAY, AND SHIFT NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN SUNDAY ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE. ADDITIONAL RAIN RETURNS TO THE WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES MONDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
EVEN MORE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST
IMPACTS:
-2.5 TO 3.5 FEET OF WATER RISE ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE AT
POINT HOPE. AROUND 2 FEET OF WATER RISE FOR POINT LAY.
-WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE.
-HEAVY RAIN IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH ESTIMATED TOTALS OF
2 TO 2.5 INCHES.
-STRONG SOUTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE AT ANAKTUVUK PASS AND UP TO 35 POSSIBLE AT
ATIGUN PASS.
TIMING:
-HIGHEST WATER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THE BERING STRAIT, PEAKING TUESDAY MORNING.
-HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN BROOKS RANGE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
-SOUTH WINDS INCREASE MONDAY, PEAK TUESDAY, AND DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SUNDAY INCREASE TO LOW
TO MID 50S MONDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 531 DAM UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS IN THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC OCEAN WITH
SEVERAL OTHER UPPER LEVEL LOWS ROTATING THROUGH THE PATTERN. ONE
CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND IS MOVING EAST
BRINGING SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
INTERIOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT ONE IN THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN THE
FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WITH SOME SLIGHT RIDGING BETWEEN THEM. THIS
SLIGHT RIDGING IS PROVIDING RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS TO THE WEST
COAST AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. UNDERNEATH THE BERING SYSTEM LIES
A WELL ORGANIZED 988MB SURFACE LOW. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST, BUT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND HIGH SURF TO THE WEST COAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE
TWO LOWS MOVES EAST OVER THE INTERIOR PROVIDING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
THE WEST COAST STORM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED. IT BEGINS TO ROTATE THE ARCTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW AS A
LARGE TROUGH RATHER THAN AS A DISTINCT LOW AND SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
BRINGING RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE INTERIOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY. THE MOST
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND ALONG ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE FEWEST SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN IN
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE NEARBY
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL SERVE TO INCREASE MINIMUM RHS
FROM THE 30S SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY THOUGH. SKIES CLEAR FROM THE WEST MONDAY BRINGING
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED EAST OF
DELTA AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF DELTA. MONDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE CONSISTENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR DUE TO CONSISTENT RAINFALL, BUT
WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST ALONG WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. RHS STAY HIGH OUT WEST WITH THIS RAIN, BUT FALL
INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND THE 30S TUESDAY IN THE EAST.
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN ALASKA WILL CAUSE
NOTABLE RISES TO WATER LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. CURRENT WATER
LEVELS ARE LOW WHICH WILL LIMIT IMPACTS DESPITE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINFALL.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW BRINGING WIDESPREAD AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK BEGINS TO MOVE
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC OCEAN BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA FROM THE WEST CREATING LARGE, BROAD SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, MOVING FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
INTERIOR GOING INTO FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN IS INCREASINGLY COMING INTO
ALIGNMENT, GIVING US GREATER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. AS OF RIGHT NOW,
DESPITE RIDGING RETURNING TO THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES STAY COOL ACROSS THE STATE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S, AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS CONTINUALLY LOOK TO BRING US CLOSER TO THE
FALL SEASON.
-SANTIAGO
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS
WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH WATER
RISING AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA, IMPACTS WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50
MPH. WAVE RUN UP AND MINOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS.
IMPACTS PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY
AS THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS DO NOT LAST AS LONG AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ821-822-824-825.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-805>807-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-817-853-854-856-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
STOKES
EXTENDED- SANTIAGO
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