390
FXAK69 PAFG 031407
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
607 AM AKDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN RETURNS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AFTER ONLY 12
TO 18 HOURS OF DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM TODAY WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR, AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BRINGING
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW WILL BE HOT ON IT'S TRAIL, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN TO NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MAKE A BRIEF RETURN IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TANANA VALLEY WILL BE AROUND 70,
WHILE THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL PUSH
TOWARDS 80.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
- UP TO 1.25 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATED AREAS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH FACING SLOPES.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE IN THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ATIGUN PASS WILL SEE UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY COULD
SEE SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN CREATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. RISING
SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY WILL HELP MELT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE. COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
WARMING OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NUIQSUIT TO
BARTER ISLAND. ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE UP TO 2", BUT WILL MELT
QUICKLY DURING THE DAYTIME.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
THIS LOW HAS AN ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO
DRAPE OVER THE Y-K DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS
MORNING, AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. WITH
MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALREADY WRAPPING INTO THIS SYSTEM, AND CUTTING
OFF THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. RAIN TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
UP TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE
RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EXPECT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM IS REACHING MATURITY, AND WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. AS IT IS IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE
AROUND THE 980 MILLIBAR MARK. BY SATURDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST, IT WILL HAVE WEAKENED WITH SOME
GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE WATER.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS IS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM. MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE A WARM UP TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY
TOMORROW THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY COULD APPROACH 80 DEGREES. THE
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTY MILE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN OUR DRY
SPOT WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH DELTA JUNCTION OR TOK. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
STARTING TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR, BUT WETTING RAINS AREN'T
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOATAK, KOBUK, AND KOYUKUK
RIVERS. FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOBUK AND ALLAKAKET.
THE WET PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT
LARGE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL SLOW THE RATE THAT WATER
LEVELS RECEED, WITH RIVER LEVELS IMPROVING, BUT REMAINING HIGH.
THE WET PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRAPE A WEAK WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. BRINGING MORE RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC FRONT DIPS DOWN ONTO
THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAINS AND THE
BEAUFORT SEA COASTLINE. LOOKING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
AND THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN IS IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE RAIN SOUTH OF GALENA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
DENNIS
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