641
FXAK69 PAFG 032218
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 PM AKDT WED SEP 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
MOVES UP THE WEST COAST. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS ALASKA PUSHING WET WEATHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALLOWS FOR
SOME SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EAST
OF FAIRBANKS. THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80S.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
- UP TO 1.25 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATED AREAS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH FACING SLOPES.
- A BRIEF DRIER SPELL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREADS TO THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST SATURDAY.
- 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE IN THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ATIGUN PASS WILL SEE UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY COULD
SEE SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN CREATING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. RISING
SNOW LEVELS THURSDAY WILL HELP MELT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE. COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
WARMING OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- SNOW LEVELS FALL ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT BARROW, GENERALLY UP TO
AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR UP TO 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MELT QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH
UP THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS,
AS OF NOON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING RAIN TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH
AN EXPECTED ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OR RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE WITH OVER AN INCH EXPECTED FOR THE
EVENT. THIS LOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ALASKA RANGE CAUSING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PAST THE BROOKS RANGE THIS SAME LOW WILL
DRAPE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE
AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE DROPPING SNOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SOME SNOW POTENTIAL EAST OF POINT BARROW AS THE REMAINING
MOISTURE IS PUSHED EAST AND SQUEEZED OUT BY THE COLD AIR.
AFTER THAT LOW IS PUSHED NORTHEAST THERE WILL FOLLOW A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW THAT
MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT LOW
MOVES INTO THE BERING AS A 980 MB LOW AND PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IT ISN'T AS WET AS THE FIRST WAVE WITH AN ENSEMBLE
SPREAD OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES, THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR. RAIN FROM THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE LOWS LIKELY COMING
BEHIND IT.
FIRE WEATHER
WET WEATHER CONTINUES WEST OF FAIRBANKS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WARMING AND DRYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR, PARTICULARLY IN
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WITH HIGHS THERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 THURSDAY AND MINIMUM RHS FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
NEAR TOK. SOUTHERLY GUSTS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES PEAK
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE MORE
WESTERN PASSES. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER EAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25MPH
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TOK CUTOFF. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
QUICKLY FRIDAY AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHES WET WEATHER TO THE
WEST EAST INTO CANADA AND PULLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
50S.
HYDROLOGY
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
MULTIPLE WAVES OF RAIN CONTINUING TO AFFECT NORTHERN ALASKA.
WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NOATAK, KOBUK, AND KOYUKUK RIVERS. FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF ALLAKAKET AND KOBUK. ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE RECESSION OF CURRENTLY ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS AND KEEP RIVERS HIGH.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5. THEREAFTER, MOST
MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A SOLUTION SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE YK-DELTA. IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT, THIS WOULD MEAN MORE CONTINUOUS PRECIP FOR THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE GFS VEERS OFF FROM OTHER
MODELS AND KEEPS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FARTHER
SOUTH, WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA. FOR THE FORECAST TODAY, THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD A BLEND
OF ALL MODELS THROUGH DAY 5, THEN REMOVES THE GFS BEYOND THAT
TIME.
-TWOMBLY
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-858.
STOKES
EXTENDED- TWOMBLY
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