609
FXAK69 PAFG 042348
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 PM AKDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
COOLING TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO BRING SOME BRIEF SNOW TO THE
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE WEST COAST
AND THE INTERIOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN
TO THE REGION AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAINY WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MOVES EAST THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
- UP TO 0.25 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA
VALLEY WHERE 0.10 INCHES OR LESS IS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THURSDAY WITH THE TANANA VALLEY IN THE
UPPER 60S, AND THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY
APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. COOLING EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WET
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING. WET
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING THE REGION
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
- UP TO 0.25 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN POSSIBLE.
- UP TO AN 0.5 POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATED AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
FACING SLOPES.
- A BRIEF DRY SPELL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREADS TO THE ENTIRE WEST
COAST SATURDAY.
- 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY. SOME DRIER
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN ON THE SOUTH
FACING SLOPES.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE.
COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WARMING
OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- SNOW LEVELS FALL ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF POINT BARROW, GENERALLY UP TO
AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR UP TO 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MELT QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE REGION OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY HAS LOST
MOST OF ITS ORGANIZATION AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. RAIN CONTINUES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL MOVE EAST AS COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW IN
THE HIGH WESTERN ARCTIC. THE WET CONDITIONS MOVING EAST ALONG WITH
THE COOLER ARCTIC AIR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE AS THIS COLD AIR SQUEEZES
OUT THAT MOISTURE FRIDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF THE RAIN FRIDAY UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE PATTERN LATER THAT NIGHT.
A 984MB LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE YK DELTA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL EXTEND AS A FRONT OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LOW REACHING THE YK DELTA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND PUSHING NORTH TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW IS LOOKING LESS WET THAN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY LOW OUT
WEST, BUT THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW THE
RECESSION OF HIGH WATER LEVELS. THIS RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND MOVE EAST INTO CANADA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BRINGING WET CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR NEXT
WEEK.
PAST THIS SECOND LOW COMES A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC SHOWS SIGNS
OF MOVING SOUTH. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN A LARGE COMPONENT IN PUSHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA AND WEST
COAST AND IT MOVING SOUTH WILL ALLOW THESE SYSTEMS TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THIS AS AN INCREASINGLY
LIKELY SOLUTION, BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE WET
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. GOOD CHANCES OF
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR EXCEPT FOR
THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN ARE LOWER WITH GENERALLY 0.10 INCHES OR LESS OF RAIN
ANTICIPATED. WARMER WEATHER IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL COOL
SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY WITH THIS RAIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 10F COOLER
THAN THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY FOLLOW FOR THE INTERIOR
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
HYDROLOGY
WET WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR MOVES EAST THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WATER LEVELS
IN MAINSTEM RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER LAST WEEK'S HIGH WATER
EVENT. CONTINUED RAINFALL HAS KEPT LOW LYING AREAS FROM DRAINING
QUICKLY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVENT WATER LEVELS FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOATAK, KOBUK, AND KOYUKUK RIVERS.
FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOBUK AND ALLAKAKET.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
GENERALLY WET AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE MOSTLY ENDING BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
ON TUESDAY, ANY RAIN IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHTER. ANY RESPITE FROM RAINFALL OUT WEST COULD BE
POTENTIALLY SHORT-LIVED BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT AHEAD OF A
LOW MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK, BUT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD
LIKELY YIELD GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD YIELD LOWER AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WET WEATHER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS. COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEK ON THE NORTH SLOPE WITH COLD TROUGHING ALOFT MOVING THROUGH.
DS
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
STOKES
EXTENDED- DS
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