267
FXAK69 PAFG 051416
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
616 AM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR. AS
OF 6:00 AM AKDT RAINFALL RANGES FROM 0.2" TO 0.6" WITH CHATANIKA
BEING THE WETTEST. THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE Y-K
DELTA TONIGHT, AND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND,
MANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA REMAIN HIGH, AND
WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- WITH 0.2 TO 0.6 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. AN ADDITIONAL 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
- THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN ON
THE DRIER SIDE WITH ONLY 0.05 INCHES EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE FAR EASTERN
INTERIOR COULD SEE SOME MID 60S, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A DRY DAY TODAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, AND WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
-ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY.
- AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WARMING
OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL SEE A ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
WILL BE MONDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO MELT DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS BRINGING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF MCGRATH. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST RAPIDLY TODAY, TAKING THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS ALREADY MADE IT'S WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR, DROPPING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE
SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
THE NEXT 982 MB LOW IS IN THE BERING SEA JUST NORTHWEST OF ADAK.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE
INTERIOR BY TONIGHT. DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW,
WHICH WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN IT. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
WARM FRONT INTO THE INTERIOR WITH THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING 0.5
TO 1.0 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR, EVEN AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO FALL APART BY
SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON SATURDAY
ARE MOSTLY SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY. THE SURFACE
GRADIENT ISN'T IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY 4 MILLIBARS ACROSS THE RANGE.
THE VORTICITY WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS
BRINGING THE GAP WINDS OF 50 MPH.
THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON THE NORTH SLOPE ON MONDAY. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ENCROACHING THE MID LEVELS, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER, A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT MONDAY. ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL
RAPIDLY MELT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS
MORNING, BEFORE DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WETTING RAINS,
BUT STILL COULD SEE A QUICK SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL OR SEASONABLE TODAY, AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MOST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WHICH
WILL HELP THE MINIMUM RH VALUES TO STAY ABOVE 50 PERCENT. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
HYDROLOGY
WATER LEVELS IN MAINSTEM RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER LAST WEEK'S
HIGH WATER EVENT. CONTINUED RAINFALL HAS KEPT LOW LYING AREAS
FROM DRAINING QUICKLY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND PREVENT WATER LEVELS FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOATAK, KOBUK, AND KOYUKUK
RIVERS. FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOBUK AND
ALLAKAKET.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SOME REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PERSIST IN THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY. AS WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE STRONGER SIGNALS THAT WE WILL ENTER
A PATTERN CHANGE. THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
THAT ENTERS THE BERING SEA TO TAKE A SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS SOUTHEAST TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSTEAD OF THE INTERIOR. THERE
WILL STILL BE A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT'S WAY
INTO THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL GET DOWNSLOPED OUT OF
THIS WARM FRONT, AND SHOULD ONLY LEAVE LIGHT RAINFALL FOR THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. AN ARCTIC LOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES, SNOW
CHANCES, AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
DENNIS
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