798
FXAK69 PAFG 052156
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
WETTER WEATHER IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR EXITS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR END AS
ANOTHER RAINY SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE YK DELTA BRINGING
RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN. DRIER
CONDITIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY TAKE HOLD IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BEFORE
WET WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN FROM FRIDAY MORNING IS EXITING ALASKA TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW SATURDAY BEFORE
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOST
AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE FAR EASTERN
INTERIOR COULD SEE SOME MID 60S, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A DRY DAY FRIDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE YK DELTA FRIDAY EVENING, AND
WILL REACH THE BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
-ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY.
- AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WARMING
OCCURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL SEE A ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
WILL BE MONDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO MELT DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
RAINY CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT. AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST, A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY AND FOR THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW, THIS ONE AROUND 984 MB IN
STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE YK DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A RAINY FRONT
TO THE YK DELTA FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN REACHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL STALL NEAR THE YK DELTA AND SLOWLY FILL
IN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON DROPPING AROUND HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER THE ALREADY WET WESTERN INTERIOR.
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN RAPIDLY
AND SHIFT EAST BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND RAIN WILL COME ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO FALTER. MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE
BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT ON PULLING A PACIFIC HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
FORCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST
FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THESE LOW SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA RATHER THAN THE BERING SEA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER
PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD LATER NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, BUT INCREASING ON THIS SOLUTION.
FIRE WEATHER
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR EXIT EAST FRIDAY EVENING.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL
WARMING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER MOVES FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS TO THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR INCLUDING THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME LOW BRINGING WET CONDITIONS TO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE RAINY CONDITIONS
MOVE EAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A BRIEF DRY SPELL FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5 TO
1.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. WATER
LEVELS IN MAINSTEM RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER LAST WEEK'S HIGH
WATER EVENT. CONTINUED RAINFALL HAS KEPT LOW LYING AREAS FROM
DRAINING QUICKLY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND PREVENT WATER LEVELS FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NOATAK, KOBUK, AND KOYUKUK
RIVERS. FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KOBUK AND ALLAKAKET.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS SHOWING VARIOUS TIMING AND
POSITIONS ON A FEW SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR PRECIP
NEXT WEEK. AN ARCTIC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPINNING IN THE N/NE
CHUKCHI SEA, SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN TO THE NW PORTION OF THE STATE
WHICH WILL BRING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. AT THE SAME
TIME, A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA.
THE EC HAS SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY, WITH VARIOUS RUNS OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS, SHOWING SOME SORT OF N/S DEFORMATION BAND FORMING AROUND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS BAND STARTED OFF OVER THE WEST COAST, AND
HAS SLOWLY BEEN SHIFTING EAST WITH EACH RUN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE NOT SHOWING OF ANY INTERACTIONS WITH THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTH AND THE LOW IN THE GULF, WHICH IS RESULTING IN LESS PRECIP
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND AS THE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS ARE RESULTING IN VARIOUS PRECIPITATION AND WIND
FORECASTS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.
-TWOMBLY
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
STOKES
EXTENDED- TWOMBLY
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