883
FXAK69 PAFG 061358
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
558 AM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTON SOUND AT AROUND 6 AM AKDT. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BRINGING RAIN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE IT'S WAY TOWARDS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER AND
WARMER, UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WE AREN'T EXPECTING A LOT OF ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THESE SHOWERS WITH RAIN TOTALS LESS THAN 0.15" THROUGH
MONDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- THE NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO NORTON SOUND THIS MORNING, AND
WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
-ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
- AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL SEE A ROUND OF SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
WILL BE MONDAY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO MELT DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OUR 988 MB LOW THIS MORNING IS CENTERED JUST OFF OF ST. MATTHEW
ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUED ITS TREK NORTHEAST TO THE
MAINLAND. WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING FROM NOME TO THE Y-K DELTA. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR BY TONIGHT BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE MAINLAND, WE WILL SEE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON 4 TO 5 MBS ACROSS THE RANGE WITH 500
MB VORTICITY MAXES GOING OVER THE RANGE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH IN BOTH ISABEL AND WINDY PASSES.
AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, THE NORTH SLOPE
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ARCTIC
AIR WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THIS DECAYING FRONT ON MONDAY. ON
THE NORTH SLOPE WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW BEGIN TO MIX INTO THE RAIN.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN BELOW 2
INCHES. EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA TO
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE DRYING OUT ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WETTING RAINS RETURN TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS STILL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL NOT BE
COMMON WITH THESE SHOWERS, EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHERLY
GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO START BACK UP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS
COULD MAKE IT TO DELTA JUNCTION AND TOK, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE PASSES.
HYDROLOGY
WET WEATHER RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND. RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. WATER LEVELS IN MAINSTEM RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED
AFTER LAST WEEK'S HIGH WATER EVENT. CONTINUED RAINFALL HAS KEPT
LOW LYING AREAS FROM DRAINING QUICKLY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PREVENT WATER LEVELS FROM
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NOATAK, KOBUK, AND KOYUKUK RIVERS. FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR KOBUK AND ALLAKAKET.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE 980 MB LOW ON TUESDAY WILL
DIP SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND MEANDER IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL BE EJECTED FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE AT 500
MBS. PAIR THAT WITH SOME MOISTURE BEING WRAPPED AROUND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, WE COULD SEE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, HOWEVER WILL BE WHAT
HAPPENS TO THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT DIPS DOWN ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE ON
MONDAY. BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND, ALL OF THE MODELS
LOOK SIMILAR, BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE MINOR DIFFERENCES MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE ON THE IMPACTS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
KEEPING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EAST OF GALENA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS, AND SOME HEAVIER RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
DENNIS
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