197
FXAK69 PAFG 062320
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
320 PM AKDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM OVER THE YK DELTA
TONIGHT TO NEAR BARTER ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 WHERE IT'S
RAINING TO THE MID 60S WHERE ITS SUNNY. SOUTHERLY MOUNTAIN GAP WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND UP TO 40
MPH FOR THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEMS TREK ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES TO SNOW ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE
ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GENERALLY LIGHT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LESS THAN
0.1" THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT FOR 0.5" TO 1.0" NEAR AND WEST OF
BETTLES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY
BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
1" POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- RAINY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE WEST-CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL SEE A ROUND OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ON
MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE WEST-
CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
AND ARE EXPECTED TO MELT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS SPREADING RAIN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST TODAY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN TO THE WEST COAST, WEST-CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND NORTH SLOPE BUT
MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.
SPOTTY DIURNAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN GUSTY MOUNTAIN GAP WINDS UP TO 55 MPH IN
ISABEL PASS AND 40-45 MPH IN WINDY PASS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE. BEHIND THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE ON MONDAY. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE. LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ARCTIC PLAINS ARE UNLIKELY TO GET MORE THAN 1-2
INCHES WITH SNOW MELTING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN THE MOUNTAINS
2-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE EAST-CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY
EVENING THEN THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON MONDAY, BUT WETTING RAINS WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS
THROUGH ISABEL PASS ARE RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT TO DELTA JUNCTION ON SUNDAY, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE PASSES.
HYDROLOGY
WET WEATHER IS SPREADING NORTH ALONG MOST OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE
FORECAST WITH LOCALLY OVER 1" AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. WATER LEVELS IN MAINSTEM
RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER LAST WEEK'S HIGH WATER EVENT, BUT
FORECAST RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO KEEP LEVELS ABOVE ACTION STAGE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KOBUK RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE KOBUK RIVERS WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR
KOBUK.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A 980 MB LOW ON TUESDAY PIVOTS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SENDS ONE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES FOCUS ROUNDS OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-819.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-804>806-852-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851-854.
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