438
FXAK69 PAFG 071418
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
618 AM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE IS SEEING RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE Y-K DELTA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
DROP DOWN ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS
AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- WINDS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN WINDY PASS. MEANWHILE, IN
ISABELL PASS WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S. THERE WILL BE A SMALL COOLDOWN
STARTING TOMORROW, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 60.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT.
- LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.
- 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM BETTLES TO TANANA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- 0.2 TO 0.7 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. ANOTHER 0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- RAIN IS STARTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE THIS MORNING.
RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES. WHILE THE
BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE UP TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE
WEST- CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO MELT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE Y-K DELTA IS MAKING IT'S SLOW TREK TO
THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THEIR FORECASTED WINDS. WE SAW AROUND 11 PM LAST NIGHT THAT
THE PASSES DID APPROACH THEIR FORECASTED VALUES, BUT SINCE THEN
THEY HAVE SLACKED OFF. THAT SHOULD CHANGE IN THE COMING HOURS, AS
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER 500 MB VORTICITY MAXES
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RANGE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS 4
TO 6 MBS, SO ONCE THE 500 MB SUPPORT COMES BACK, THE WINDS WILL
PICK BACK UP.
THE NEXT LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IT MOVES
EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW THAT WILL WRAP INTO THE INTERIOR BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR, WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN ONTO THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY,
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. THERE WILL BE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THIS FRONT, THAT IS LOOKING
TO WRAP UP ON ITSELF AND CLOSE OFF. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINITY
WITH THIS FEATURE, AND ANY MOVEMENT WEST OR EAST ON IT WILL CHANGE
WHO WILL BE IMPACTED BY IT.
FIRE WEATHER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH
THESE SHOWERS. GAP WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TOK AND DELTA JUCNTION
WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS, BUT THE STRONGEST WILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND YESTERDAY'S
HIGHS. WE WILL SEE A MINOR COOLDOWN STARTING TOMORROW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AROUND 60 DEGREES.
HYDROLOGY
WET WEATHER IS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA,AND WILL
SPREAD TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TOMORROW. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY OVER 1" AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE.
WATER LEVELS IN MAINSTEM RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER LAST WEEK'S
HIGH WATER EVENT, BUT FORECAST RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO KEEP
LEVELS ABOVE ACTION STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE KOBUK RIVER. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KOBUK RIVERS WITH A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR KOBUK.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
OUR 986 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER JUST EAST OF KODIAK IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THIS LOW WILL HAVE LOST MUCH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND WILL BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. AS THIS
LOW SITS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WAVES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EJECTED TOWARDS INTERIOR ALASKA. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE POLAR LOW TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN CLOSING OFF WITH THE
HELP OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. BY THURSDAY MORNING ALL OF THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES HAS THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED
OFF LOW. THIS LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ARCTIC AIR, AND THE
MOISTURE THAT THE DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING INTO THE
INTERIOR. WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND
BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINITY FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-819.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ847.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
DENNIS
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