363
FXAK69 PAFG 072300
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE BEAUFORT SEA TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50F. TEMPERATURES ARE 5-15F WARMER UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES STRUGGLE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS SEEM MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
BROOKS RANGE, RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS STAY
LIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A MUCH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR NEAR
BETTLES WITH AROUND 0.25" TO 0.5" OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MORE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WHERE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1".
- STEADY RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHES ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY
- COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND SPREADING INTO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
WITH RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 0.33" AND 0.66", GREATEST BETWEEN DEADHORSE
AND ANAKTUVUK PASS.
- HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE UP TO 1.0" OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
- ACCUMULATING WET SNOW COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CAUSES THE ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BEAUFORT SEA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM'S MOISTURE PLUME IS BEING INTERCEPTED BY THE ALASKA RANGE
SO RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY, BUT ARE
GENERALLY STAYING NEAR OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE STILL
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT STALLS AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS A SEASONABLY STRONG ~980 MB
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASES ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT. DIURNALLY-INDUCED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY,
PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW SENDS A
WARM FRONT INLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING RAPIDLY, PRIMARILY INCREASING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRIMARILY SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS
RANGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS STAY GENERALLY STATUS QUO FOR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW PREVAILING THOUGH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
LATE THIS WEEK. SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EAST-CENTRAL
INTERIOR THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. DELTA JUNCTION WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE LOCALIZED
WITHIN THE PASSES. THUNDER CHANCES MAY RETURN TO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
WET WEATHER CONTINUES SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF
0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY OVER 1" AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. WATER
LEVELS IN MAINSTEM RIVERS REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER LAST WEEK'S HIGH
WATER EVENT, BUT FORECAST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HOW QUICKLY
WATER LEVELS DROP. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KOBUK
RIVER WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR KOBUK.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS AND FLOOD PRODUCTS, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A WEAKENING ~988 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVES OF ENERGY TRACK
NORTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY
NORTH-SOUTH BETWEEN BETTLES AND MCGRATH. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND THUNDER CHANCES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AS A LOBE OF
THE ARCTIC LOW PHASES WITH THE STRONG LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE VICINITY OF KOTZEBUE WITH A WAVE OF MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING
NEAR THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREADING
NORTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. EVEN THOUGH SNOW MAY TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN
ON FRIDAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH MAY SHIFT FURTHER EAST
LATE THIS WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ813-819.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
EK
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