062
FXAK69 PAFG 082307
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND CENTRAL
NORTH SLOPE ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS A BROAD TROUGHING DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST SOUTH
TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A AREA OF FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE REMNANT FRONT WITH SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS
LATE ON TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. COLDER
POST-FRONTAL AIR CHANGES RAIN TO SNOW, STARTING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT GRADUALLY LOWERS TO SEA LEVEL
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BANDS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES MAY BRING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WARM SOILS ARE UNLIKELY TO ALLOW
FOR LOW ELEVATION ACCUMULATION UNTIL AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW
WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTLINE NEAR BARTER
ISLAND WHERE SNOW APPEARS TO TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINE BETWEEN BETTLES AND MCGRATH WHERE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75" THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WITH AROUND 0.1" ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
- MORE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STEADY RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
PARKS HIGHWAY MAY RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
- COOLER AND DRY FOR THE WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHES OF
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST.
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH ALONG THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.33", BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5" ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN DEADHORSE AND ATIGUN PASS.
- THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- ACCUMULATING WET SNOW COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS ARE FORECAST TO GET 4-7
INCHES OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SLOPE WHERE WARMER TEMPS MAY RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS ROUGHLY
BETWEEN DEADHORSE AND BETTLES GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER ON TUESDAY AS A ~980 MB
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW
INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPE OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD RUBY. THE
STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WINTRY P-TYPES AT HIGH ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLD AIR DEEPENS AND PRECIPITATION LIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. THE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHAPED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAIN AS THE 500 MB
LOW CLOSES OFF. A WESTERLY BARRIER JET APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF BARTER ISLAND ON THURSDAY
THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY
TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN.
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE LISBURNE PENINSULA THURSDAY
NIGHT SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE DECAYING GULF OF ALASKA LOW
MOVES ONSHORE. MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THAT MAY
REACH DOWN TO CANTWELL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO END BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS STAY GENERALLY STATUS QUO FOR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW PREVAILING THOUGH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
LATE THIS WEEK. SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BEFORE
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOCALIZED WETTING
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
WETTING RAINS. GAP WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BUT
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH UP TO 40 MPH AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND MAY
REACH TO DELTA JUNCTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES
MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATERS ARE RECEDING AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RENEW FLOOD CONCERNS. AS A RESULT, THE REMAINING
FLOOD WATCH AND ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON ON MONDAY.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS VISIT: WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND
WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...NO UPDATE
SEE PREVIOUS VERSION.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROTATING AROUND A
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE REGION NEAR THE NORTH POLE ROTATES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS AS IT ALIGNS WITH THE AXIS OF
THE BROAD TROUGH. THIS FEATURE STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO FORM A CLOSED
OFF LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH AND WET ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW THAT
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SAME FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS THE BAND
FORMS AND MOVES NORTH. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WET AND
HEAVY DUE TO WARMER INITIAL SURFACE CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH HOWEVER WITH A 25TH PERCENTILE AROUND
2 INCHES AND A 75TH PERCENTILE AROUND 5 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE FOR THE MULTI-DAY EVENT. WHICH SIDE OF THIS SPREAD ENDS UP
VERIFYING WILL LARGELY BE DECIDED BY THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW. WE
ARE FAVORING A MORE MODEST FORECAST OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WETTER,
HEAVIER SNOW DUE TO THE EXPECTED PRESENCE OF WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S, BUT SHOULD TEMPERATURES COOL
SUFFICIENTLY GREATER ACCUMULATIONS OF FLUFFIER SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
-STOKES
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-816-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-817-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
EK
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