903
FXAK69 PAFG 090332 AAA
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
732 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2025
UPDATED EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A BROAD TROUGHING DEEPENS ALONG
THE WEST COAST SOUTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A AREA OF
FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
REMNANT FRONT WITH SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS LATE ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR CHANGES RAIN TO SNOW, STARTING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT GRADUALLY LOWERS TO SEA LEVEL
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BANDS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES MAY
BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WARM SOILS ARE UNLIKELY TO
ALLOW FOR LOW ELEVATION ACCUMULATION UNTIL AFTER SUNSET ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN
COASTLINE NEAR BARTER ISLAND WHERE SNOW APPEARS TO TRANSITION BACK
TO RAIN.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINE BETWEEN BETTLES AND MCGRATH WHERE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75" THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WITH AROUND 0.1" ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
- MORE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING FARTHER EAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STEADY RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
PARKS HIGHWAY MAY RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING.
- COOLER AND DRY FOR THE WEST COAST TONIGHT THEN SPREADING INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHES OF
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST.
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH ALONG THE WEST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.33", BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5" ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN DEADHORSE AND ATIGUN PASS.
- THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- ACCUMULATING WET SNOW COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SNOW CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING ATIGUN PASS ARE FORECAST TO GET 4-7
INCHES OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SLOPE WHERE WARMER TEMPS MAY RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN AXIS OF RAIN SHOWERS ROUGHLY
BETWEEN DEADHORSE AND BETTLES GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER ON TUESDAY AS A ~980 MB
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW
INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SLOPE OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD RUBY. THE
STRENGTHENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES
FOR WINTRY P-TYPES AT HIGH ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS
COLD AIR DEEPENS AND PRECIPITATION LIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. THE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHAPED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAIN AS THE 500 MB
LOW CLOSES OFF. A WESTERLY BARRIER JET APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN IN THE VICINITY OF BARTER ISLAND ON THURSDAY
THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS MORE LIKELY
TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN.
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE LISBURNE PENINSULA THURSDAY
NIGHT SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS ALLOWS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE DECAYING GULF OF ALASKA LOW
MOVES ONSHORE. MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THAT MAY
REACH DOWN TO CANTWELL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO END BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS STAY GENERALLY STATUS QUO FOR THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW PREVAILING THOUGH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
LATE THIS WEEK. SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BEFORE
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOCALIZED WETTING
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
WETTING RAINS. GAP WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BUT
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH UP TO 40 MPH AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND MAY
REACH TO DELTA JUNCTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES
MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATERS ARE RECEDING AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO RENEW FLOOD CONCERNS. AS A RESULT, THE REMAINING
FLOOD WATCH AND ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON ON MONDAY.
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECASTS VISIT: WEATHER.GOV/AFG AND
WEATHER.GOV/APRFC
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A BROAD, MESSY TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE STATE CENTERED ON A
CLOSED 534 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LISBURNE PENINSULA
FRIDAY. A 542 DECAMETER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKENS INTO A
LARGE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT MOVES NORTH INTO THE ALASKA RANGE
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER ARCTIC AIR ROTATES
AROUND THE STRONGER LOW AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH BRINGING COOL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO JUST
SNOW IN SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING THE PARKS
HIGHWAY FROM DENALI PARK TO CANTWELL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR EXACTLY HOW THIS POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT
WILL PLAY OUT FOR THE PARKS HIGHWAY WITH A VERY LARGE RANGE OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM ONLY RAIN, TO A SLUSHY
RAIN/SNOW MIX, TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, TO POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS WINTRY FORECAST, BUT GIVEN THE SETUP SOME WINTRY MIX IS
QUITE POSSIBLE. WE ARE CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS A SLUSHY WINTRY MIX
SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW.
ELSEWHERE, COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-STOKES
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-816-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-817-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
EK
EXTENDED- STOKES
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