267
FXAK69 PAFG 092318
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
318 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS THERE IS A LOW IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC AND A LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A DEFORMATION ZONE FOR MOISTURE TO
STREAM ALONG THIS WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AS RAIN, BROOKS RANGE AS RAIN AND SNOW, AND
THE NORTH SLOPE AS SNOW. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET TO MIX IN, ESPECIALLY FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY EAST.
SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THEN BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NORTH/EAST OF
FAIRBANKS, THEN AROUND FAIRBANKS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- STEADY RAIN NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SNOW POSSIBLE IN CANTWELL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A COUPLE SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
COLDER/GRASSY SURFACES.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TODAY/TOMORROW, THEN IN THE 40S/50S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN LIKELY FROM HOLY CROSS TO HUGHES AND POINTS EAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- 0.25 TO 0.75" OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH UP TO 1" IN THE TERRAIN.
- DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
WEEK WITH COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- LIGHT WET SNOW BEGINS LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS
RANGE, THEN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IN ANAKTUVUK PASS AND ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY FROM
ATIGUN PASS NORTH. SNOW TAPERS OFF ON THURSDAY.
- MIXED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE (NO SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS) EAST OF THE HAUL ROAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- DRYING FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
- UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND ALONG
THE COAST.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS
RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 500 DECAMETER LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC, NORTH OF 80N, AND A 538
DECAMTER LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO WILL DEVELOP A DEFORMATION ZONE THAT
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM ALONG IT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WESTERN-CENTRAL INTERIOR (TANANA TO BETTLES). THERE WILL BE
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT NORTH
OF FAIRBANKS WITH GREATER CHANCES IN FAIRBANKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, ALL OF THE RAIN WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
BROOKS RANGE WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW AROUND ATIGUN PASS. SNOW
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE.
SNOW THEN MOVES INTO THE ARCTIC PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE EXTENDING WEST TO UTQIAGVIK BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY FRIDAY WITH
ONLY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND
BROOKS RANGE. QUIETER WEATHER MOVES INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THIS
WEEKEND AS TROUGHING REMAINS IN THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL OUT WEST AND ON THE NORTH SLOPE, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY TODAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
LOW TO MID 60S TOMORROW AND MIN RHS AROUND 30 TO 40%. TEMPERATURES
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STORM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM TOK EAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STORM ALONG
THE ALCAN BORDER.
HYDROLOGY
RAIN FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL LARGELY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK ACROSS
THE NORTH SLOPE WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
SATURDAY A WEAK RIDGE IS LOOKING TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO
SEASONABLE NORMS AFTER THE ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE INTERIOR AND SOME GAP WINDS
IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-804-850-852>854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-860-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
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