445
FXAK69 PAFG 101030
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
230 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS THERE IS A LOW IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC AND A LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A DEFORMATION ZONE FOR MOISTURE TO
STREAM ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN AS THE MOISTURE MOVES
UP THE WESTERN INTERIOR, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE. A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DALTON
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND AID IN PROGRESSING THESE SNOW CHANCES TO THE NW
ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
OUT WEST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT NORTH/EAST OF
FAIRBANKS, THEN AROUND FAIRBANKS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- STEADY RAIN NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- SNOW POSSIBLE IN CANTWELL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
COUPLE SLUSHY INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
COLDER/GRASSY SURFACES.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TODAY/TOMORROW, THEN IN THE 40S/50S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN LIKELY FROM HOLY CROSS TO HUGHES AND POINTS EAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 0.25 TO 0.75" OF RAIN EXPECTED
WITH UP TO 1" IN THE TERRAIN.
- DRY WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH FRIDAY,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL TO END THE
WEEK WITH COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ESPECIALLY IN
ANAKTUVUK PASS AND ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY FROM ATIGUN PASS
NORTH. SNOW TAPERS OFF ON THURSDAY.
- MIXED FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE (NO SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS) EAST OF THE HAUL ROAD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- DRYING FRIDAY WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND ALONG
THE COAST, AND 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST. A DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE FROM THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH SLOPE. THIS FEATURE IS DRIVEN BY A 500
DECAMETER LOW NEAR THE NORTH POLE AND A LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AS
IT PROGRESSES TO THE NE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH, OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BEGIN INGESTING THE
ENERGY FROM THE DECAYING LOW IN THE GULF. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME CLOSED AND PROVIDE A GOOD BIT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
DEFORMATION BAND, A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO PROGRESS
FROM THE GULF TO THE NORTH SLOPE. THIS WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN- CENTRAL INTERIOR. AS
THE MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE BROOKS RANGE, THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW AROUND THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE NEAR ATIGUN AND
ANAKTUVUK. A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE DALTON AS SOME WARMER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT UP
ALONG THE DEFORMATION BAND. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE
NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE AND REACHING UTQIAGVIK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WILL BE OVER BY FRIDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE. HOWEVER, SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NW ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST COAST AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
FIRE WEATHER
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND MIN RHS AROUND 40 TO 50%.
TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THIS MORNING WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STORM IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FROM TOK EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A STORM ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.
HYDROLOGY...NO UPDATE
SEE PREVIOUS VERSION
RAIN FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL LARGELY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY STRETCHING SOUTH
FROM A 495 DECAMETER LOW ABOVE 80 DEGREES NORTH AND CENTERED AROUND
A 534 DECAMETER LOW OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. THE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE MOVES FURTHER NORTH THROUGH MONDAY WHILE THE LOW
NORTH OF 80N MOVES SOUTH INTO SIBERIA. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH FAR EASTERN SIBERIA AND INTO CANADA WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CUT
OFF THE TROUGH. THE REMNANT OF THE TROUGH BECOMES A ~540 DECAMETER
LOW IN THE BERING SEA BY TUESDAY.
AS THE LOWS IN THE MAIN TROUGHING PATTERN MOVE AWAY AND HIGHER
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO COALESCE IN
THE BERING SEA FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WE BEGIN TO SEE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK. TEMPERATURES ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB
IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS A HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
IN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- STOKES
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-805-806-850-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-803-852-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-860-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
TWOMBLY
EXTENDED - STOKES
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